Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth
Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth
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DOI：
10.1038/s41586-020-2686-x
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发表时间：
2020-09-24
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Griscom, Bronson W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cook-Patton, Susan C.;Leavitt, Sara M.;Griscom, Bronson W.
为了遏制全球变暖，我们必须大力减少温室气体排放，并捕获过量的大气二氧化碳（1，2）。再生天然林是捕获额外碳的一个突出战略（3），但其潜力的准确评估受到碳积累率的不确定性和可变性的限制（2，3）。为了评估为什么和哪里的速度不同，我们在这里汇编了13，112个碳积累的地理参考测量值。气候因素比土地利用历史更好地解释了速率的变化，因此我们将实地测量与66个环境协变量层结合起来，创建了一个全球性的，1公里分辨率的天然森林再生前30年潜在地上碳积累速率地图。这张地图显示了地球仪上超过100倍的比率变化，并表明政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的默认比率（4，5）可能平均低估了32%的地上碳积累率，并且没有捕捉到生态区内的8倍变化。相反，我们的结论是，天然森林再生的最大气候缓解潜力比以前报告的低11%（3），原因是对潜在新森林的位置使用了过高的比率。虽然我们的数据汇编包括比以前更多的研究和网站，我们的结果取决于数据的可用性，这是集中在十个国家，和数据质量，这是不同的研究。然而，这些图涵盖了我们预测碳积累率的地区（除了北方非洲和东北亚）的大部分环境条件。因此，我们提供了一个强大且全球一致的工具，用于评估天然森林再生作为气候减缓战略。一张分辨率为1公里的森林再生地上碳积累率地图显示，地球仪在全球范围内存在100倍的变化，平均比IPCC估计的高32%。
To constrain global warming, we must strongly curtail greenhouse gas emissions and capture excess atmospheric carbon dioxide(1,2). Regrowing natural forests is a prominent strategy for capturing additional carbon(3), but accurate assessments of its potential are limited by uncertainty and variability in carbon accumulation rates(2,3). To assess why and where rates differ, here we compile 13,112 georeferenced measurements of carbon accumulation. Climatic factors explain variation in rates better than land-use history, so we combine the field measurements with 66 environmental covariate layers to create a global, one-kilometre-resolution map of potential aboveground carbon accumulation rates for the first 30 years of natural forest regrowth. This map shows over 100-fold variation in rates across the globe, and indicates that default rates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)(4,5)may underestimate aboveground carbon accumulation rates by 32 per cent on average and do not capture eight-fold variation within ecozones. Conversely, we conclude that maximum climate mitigation potential from natural forest regrowth is 11 per cent lower than previously reported(3)owing to the use of overly high rates for the location of potential new forest. Although our data compilation includes more studies and sites than previous efforts, our results depend on data availability, which is concentrated in ten countries, and data quality, which varies across studies. However, the plots cover most of the environmental conditions across the areas for which we predicted carbon accumulation rates (except for northern Africa and northeast Asia). We therefore provide a robust and globally consistent tool for assessing natural forest regrowth as a climate mitigation strategy.A one-kilometre-resolution map of aboveground carbon accumulation rates of forest regrowth shows 100-fold variation across the globe, with rates 32% higher on average than IPCC estimates.