Using a household structured branching process to analyse contact tracing in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
Using a household structured branching process to analyse contact tracing in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
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使用家庭结构化分支流程分析 SARS-CoV-2 大流行中的接触者追踪
DOI：
10.1101/2021.02.03.21250992
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Fyles M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fyles M
采用具有家庭结构的分支过程模型，探讨接触者追踪、病例隔离和暴露接触者检疫控制SARS-CoV-2流行的策略。这种结构反映出家庭成员之间的传播风险高于非家庭成员。我们探索了利用家庭结构的战略实施选择，并研究了包括两步追踪、向后追踪、智能手机追踪和根据症状报告而不是测试结果追踪在内的策略。模型的主要结果是接触者追踪与不同程度的身体距离相结合对流行病增长率的影响。此外，我们调查了流行病灭绝时间，以表明干预措施必须持续的时间段。我们考虑了不接受隔离/检疫、不遵守规定以及随着时间的推移接触者召回率下降的影响。我们的研究结果发现，与不进行接触者追踪的病例自我隔离相比，旨在利用家庭结构的接触者追踪策略可以在一定程度上放松身体距离措施，但如果没有其他措施，则无法完全控制疫情。即使假设没有输入病例，并保持适度的身体距离、检测和追踪工作，消灭这一流行病的时间可能需要几个月到几年。本文是主题问题“塑造英国早期COVID-19大流行应对的建模”的一部分。
We explore strategies of contact tracing, case isolation and quarantine of exposed contacts to control the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic using a branching process model with household structure. This structure reflects higher transmission risks among household members than among non-household members. We explore strategic implementation choices that make use of household structure, and investigate strategies including two-step tracing, backwards tracing, smartphone tracing and tracing upon symptom report rather than test results. The primary model outcome is the effect of contact tracing, in combination with different levels of physical distancing, on the growth rate of the epidemic. Furthermore, we investigate epidemic extinction times to indicate the time period over which interventions must be sustained. We consider effects of non-uptake of isolation/quarantine, non-adherence, and declining recall of contacts over time. Our results find that, compared to self-isolation of cases without contact tracing, a contact tracing strategy designed to take advantage of household structure allows for some relaxation of physical distancing measures but cannot completely control the epidemic absent of other measures. Even assuming no imported cases and sustainment of moderate physical distancing, testing and tracing efforts, the time to bring the epidemic to extinction could be in the order of months to years.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.