The Tides They Are A‐Changin': A Comprehensive Review of Past and Future Nonastronomical Changes in Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, and Future Implications
The Tides They Are A‐Changin': A Comprehensive Review of Past and Future Nonastronomical Changes in Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, and Future Implications
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DOI：
10.1029/2018rg000636
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发表时间：
2020-03
影响因子：
25.2
通讯作者：
I. Haigh;Mark D. Pickering;J. Green;B. Arbic;A. Arns;S. Dangendorf;D. Hill;K. Horsburgh;T. Howard;D. Idier;D. Jay;Leon Jänicke;S. Lee;Malte Müller;M. Schindelegger;S. Talke;S. Wilmes;P. Woodworth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
I. Haigh;Mark D. Pickering;J. Green;B. Arbic;A. Arns;S. Dangendorf;D. Hill;K. Horsburgh;T. Howard;D. Idier;D. Jay;Leon Jänicke;S. Lee;Malte Müller;M. Schindelegger;S. Talke;S. Wilmes;P. Woodworth
科学家和工程师已经观察到，由于非天文因素，许多地点的潮汐振幅正在发生相当大的变化。在这里，我们全面回顾了潮汐特性的这些重要变化，其中许多仍然知之甚少。在漫长的地质时间尺度上，构造过程驱动着盆地大小、深度和形状的变化，从而导致海洋盆地的共振特性。在较短的地质时间尺度上，海洋潮汐特性的变化受水深变化的影响。越来越多的研究已经确定了19、20和21世纪初潮汐成分和潮位的广泛的、有时是区域上一致的、积极的和消极的趋势。确定原因具有挑战性，因为在海岸测量的潮汐综合了当地、地区和海洋变化的影响。在这里，我们重点介绍了六个可能导致地方尺度上测量的潮汐统计数据变化的主要因素，以及另外八个可能的区域/全球驱动机制。由于只有少数研究将观测和模型结合在一起，或以能够解决超局部和大范围全球变化的时间/空间分辨率进行建模，地方和区域机制的单独贡献仍然不确定。尽管如此，模型研究预测，海平面上升和气候变化将在未来几个世纪继续改变潮汐，沿海地形和冰盖范围的变化导致区域一致的变化模式。因此，需要更好地了解潮汐变化的原因和后果，以帮助评估对海岸防御、风险评估和生态变化的影响。
Scientists and engineers have observed for some time that tidal amplitudes at many locations are shifting considerably due to nonastronomical factors. Here we review comprehensively these important changes in tidal properties, many of which remain poorly understood. Over long geological time scales, tectonic processes drive variations in basin size, depth, and shape and hence the resonant properties of ocean basins. On shorter geological time scales, changes in oceanic tidal properties are dominated by variations in water depth. A growing number of studies have identified widespread, sometimes regionally coherent, positive, and negative trends in tidal constituents and levels during the 19th, 20th, and early 21st centuries. Determining the causes is challenging because a tide measured at a coastal gauge integrates the effects of local, regional, and oceanic changes. Here, we highlight six main factors that can cause changes in measured tidal statistics on local scales and a further eight possible regional/global driving mechanisms. Since only a few studies have combined observations and models, or modeled at a temporal/spatial resolution capable of resolving both ultralocal and large‐scale global changes, the individual contributions from local and regional mechanisms remain uncertain. Nonetheless, modeling studies project that sea level rise and climate change will continue to alter tides over the next several centuries, with regionally coherent modes of change caused by alterations to coastal morphology and ice sheet extent. Hence, a better understanding of the causes and consequences of tidal variations is needed to help assess the implications for coastal defense, risk assessment, and ecological change.