Impacts of changes in climate, land use, and emissions on global ozone air quality by mid-21st century following selected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.
Impacts of changes in climate, land use, and emissions on global ozone air quality by mid-21st century following selected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.
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根据选定的共享社会经济路径，到 21 世纪中叶，气候、土地利用和排放变化对全球臭氧空气质量的影响。
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167759
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发表时间：
2024
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Bhattarai H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bhattarai H
地表臭氧（O3）是一种主要的空气污染物和温室气体，对人类健康、植被和气候具有重大风险。了解各种关键因素对O3的影响至关重要。我们使用社区地球系统模型来调查土地利用和土地覆盖变化（LULCC），气候和排放对全球O3空气质量的影响，在选定的共享社会经济途径（SSP）。我们的研究结果表明，在SSP 1下，中国东部，欧洲和美国东部的森林覆盖率增加20%，导致异戊二烯排放量增加，导致夏季O3水平增加2-5 ppb。气候引起的气象变化，如气温上升，进一步增加了BVOC的排放量，并使NOx水平高的城市地区的O3水平增加了10-20 ppb。然而，在偏远环境中，较高的BVOC排放量可使O3水平降低5-10 ppb。未来的NOx排放控制将使美国和欧洲所有SSP中的O3水平降低5-20 ppb，但在SSP 5中，NOx的减少和氧化剂滴定的变化将使中国东南部的O3水平升高。在不同的SSP下，南部非洲和印度的NOx排放量增加显著地将O3水平提高到15 ppb。气候变化与排放变化同样重要，有时会抵消排放控制的好处。排放、气候和土地覆被的综合影响导致SSP 3下印度北方和中国东部的O3空气质量恶化，这是由于人为的NOx和气候引起的BVOC排放。在北方半球，由于氮氧化物排放量减少，地表臭氧含量减少，尽管气候和土地利用变化可能会增加区域臭氧含量。到2050年，大多数亚洲地区的臭氧水平超过世界卫生组织的安全限制，每年超过150天。我们的研究强调，需要考虑复杂的相互作用，以便在未来有效地控制和管理空气污染。
Surface ozone (O3) is a major air pollutant and greenhouse gas with significant risks to human health, vegetation, and climate. Uncertainties around the impacts of various critical factors on O3is crucial to understand. We used the Community Earth System Model to investigate the impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC), climate, and emissions on global O3air quality under selected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our findings show that increasing forest cover by 20 % under SSP1 in East China, Europe, and the eastern US leads to higher isoprene emissions leading 2–5 ppb increase in summer O3levels. Climate-induced meteorological changes, like rising temperatures, further enhance BVOC emissions and increase O3levels by 10–20 ppb in urban areas with high NOxlevels. However, higher BVOC emissions can reduce O3levels by 5–10 ppb in remote environments. Future NOxemissions control reduces O3levels by 5–20 ppb in the US and Europe in all SSPs, but reductions in NOxand changes in oxidant titration increase O3in southeast China in SSP5. Increased NOxemissions in southern Africa and India significantly elevate O3levels up to 15 ppb under different SSPs. Climate change is equally important as emissions changes, sometimes countering the benefits of emissions control. The combined effects of emissions, climate, and land cover result in worse O3air quality in northern India (+40 %) and East China (+20 %) under SSP3 due to anthropogenic NOxand climate-induced BVOC emissions. Over the northern hemisphere, surface O3decreases due to reduced NOxemissions, although climate and land use changes can increase O3levels regionally. By 2050, O3levels in most Asian regions exceed the World Health Organization safety limit for over 150 days per year. Our study emphasizes the need to consider complex interactions for effective air pollution control and management in the future.