General framework of opening and closing shops over a spatial network based on stochastic utility under competitive and time-bounded environment
General framework of opening and closing shops over a spatial network based on stochastic utility under competitive and time-bounded environment
复制标题
竞争和时限环境下基于随机效用的空间网络开店和关店总体框架
DOI：
10.1007/s13278-021-00778-4
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Motoda Hiroshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fushimi Takayasu;Saito Kazumi;Ohara Kouzou;Kimura Masahiro;Motoda Hiroshi
本文基于店铺距离和店铺吸引力的随机效用函数，在明确的旅行时间约束下，提出了群体竞争环境下店铺开放和关闭的一般框架，即同一群体中的店铺合作经营和不同群体中的店铺竞争经营。该框架允许通过选择特定的效用函数形式来推导特定的预测模型，包括我们提出的函数形式，其变体以及我们选择作为参考的传统的最先进的重力模型。我们计算了市场份额的边际收益，这是由效用函数和消费者购买力得出的，作为对候选地点进行排名的衡量标准。利用日本四个城市的三家便利店集团的真实数据集，我们分析了衍生模型在时间限制和其他参数方面的表现，以及每个模型与其他模型的比较。我们确认，尽管我们在模型中进行了简化，但在实际数据中，新开业商店的推断排名显示较高，这意味着我们的预测模型和其他变体是合理的。结果表明，该模型比重力模型更符合实际，这表明我们的具有时间限制的随机效用的群体竞争机制是重要的和有前途的。包括时间限制是至关重要的。对开店和关门的动态分析表明，随着时间的推移，竞争确实会影响各组的市场份额，总份额虽然较小，但最终会增加，各组内部的份额差异逐渐变小，表明各组内店铺的空间分布趋于均匀。
We propose a general framework of opening and closing shops in group competitive environment, i.e., shops in the same group work cooperatively and those in different groups competitively, based on stochastic utility which is given by a function of shop distance and attractiveness with an explicit traveling time-bound imposed. The framework allows to derive a specific prediction model by choosing a specific function form of utility, including the one we propose, its variants and the conventional state-of-the-art gravity model which we chose as a reference. We compute a marginal gain of the market share which is derived from the utility function and the consumers buying power as a measure to rank the candidate location. Using the real dataset of three convenience store groups in four cities in Japan, we analyzed how the derived models behave with respect to the time-bound and the other parameters and how each model compare with others. We confirm that, despite the simplification we made in the model, inferred rankings of the shops newly opened in the real data are shown to be high implying that our prediction model and other variants are reasonable. We show that our model gives much more realistic results than the gravity model, which indicates that our group competitive mechanism with the time-bounded stochastic utility is vital and promising. Inclusion of the time-bound constraint is crucially important. Analyses of the dynamics of opening and closing shops indicate that competition indeed affects the market share of each group over time, and the total share eventually increases although small, and the difference of the share within each group gradually becomes smaller, revealing that the spatial distribution of the shops in each group becomes more uniform.
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