Stochastic theories for the irregularity of ENSO
Stochastic theories for the irregularity of ENSO
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DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2008.0048
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发表时间：
2008-07-28
期刊：
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Kleeman, Richard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kleeman, Richard
厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）现象是年际尺度上最主要的气候波动。它是一种不规则的振荡，具有独特的宽带频谱。在这篇文章中，我们讨论了最近的理论，试图解释这种不规则性。特别注意的解释，涉及快速大气瞬变的慢海洋模式的随机强迫。我们提出了一个理论框架来分析这张图片的不规则性，并讨论了一些耦合海洋大气模型的结果。最后，我们简要回顾了ENSO不规则性的各种解释的影响，试图预测这一经济上的重要现象。
The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the dominant climatic fluctuation on interannual time scales. It is an irregular oscillation with a distinctive broadband spectrum. In this article, we discuss recent theories that seek to explain this irregularity. Particular attention is paid to explanations that involve the stochastic forcing of the slow ocean modes by fast atmospheric transients. We present a theoretical framework for analysing this picture of the irregularity and also discuss the results from a number of coupled ocean atmosphere models. Finally, we briefly review the implications of the various explanations of ENSO irregularity to attempts to predict this economically significant phenomenon.