Climate change and transportation in Northern Canada: an integrated impact assessment
Climate change and transportation in Northern Canada: an integrated impact assessment
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加拿大北部的气候变化和交通：综合影响评估
DOI：
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发表时间：
1993
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Woo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Lonergan;R. Difrancesco;M. Woo
采用随机模型、计量经济模型和投入产出分析相结合的方法估算了气候变暖对加拿大西北地区麦肯齐河谷的物理和经济影响。其目的是说明使用分析模型进行长期影响评估以及估计该区域预计的气候变暖的潜在影响的效用。采用了基于三个全球环流模式的情景方法，重点模拟了气候变率、河流冰况和经济影响。运输系统被用作连接物质和社会经济组成部分的中心焦点。尽管对该地区的预估显着变暖，但结果表明，交通变化对经济的影响相对较小，第三产业或服务部门的变化最大。
The physical and economic impacts of climate warming in the Mackenzie River Valley, Northwest Territories, Canada are estimated using a combination of stochastic modelling, econometric-modelling and input-output analysis. The attempt was to illustrate the utility of using analytical models for long-term impact assessment as well as to estimate the potential impacts from projected climate warming in the region. A scenario approach, based on three global circulation models, was used, with an emphasis on modelling climate variability, river ice conditions and economic impacts. The transportation system was used as a central focus linking the physical and socio-economic components. Despite the significant warming projected for the region, results show the economic impacts from changes in transportation to be relatively minor, with the greatest changes being in the tertiary, or service, sector.