Exit dynamics of start-up firms: Structural estimation using indirect inference
Exit dynamics of start-up firms: Structural estimation using indirect inference
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.03.011
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发表时间：
2018-07-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Raknerud, Arvid
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Golombek, Rolf;Raknerud, Arvid
我们通过间接推理估计了一个结构经济模型，其中企业的退出和投资决策是一个离散-连续随机动态规划问题的解。该方法解决了结构离散-连续选择模型中基于仿真推理的主要困难，即仿真轨迹是结构参数的不连续函数。通过对挪威制造业中所有初创企业的估计，我们发现，如果持续生产的期望值相对于退出的期望值持续较低，那么企业退出的概率很高。(C)2018爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
We estimate by means of indirect inference a structural economic model where firms' exit and investment decisions are the solution to a discrete-continuous stochastic dynamic programming problem. Our method solves the main difficulty of simulation-based inference in structural discrete-continuous choice models, namely that the simulated trajectories are discontinuous functions of the structural parameters. Estimating the model on all start-up firms in the Norwegian manufacturing sector, we find that if the expected value of continuing production is persistently low relative to the expected value of exit, the firm has a high probability to exit. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.