LONG-TERM MODELS OF THE JAPANESE ECONOMY
LONG-TERM MODELS OF THE JAPANESE ECONOMY
复制标题
日本经济的长期模型
DOI：
10.11398/economics1950.20.3_41
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发表时间：
1969
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Yoshihara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Yoshihara
在战后时期，人们对获得各国在很长一段时间内的国民生产总值及其有关组成部分的估计数产生了极大的兴趣。这种兴趣的兴起主要是由于人们希望了解发达国家经济增长的历史过程，以及希望对落后国家未来的发展问题有所了解。那些致力于将数据处理成对经济学家有意义的形式的人是定量经济史学家。他们的最大贡献之一是获得了国民生产总值和其他经济活动指标的估计数;没有这些，我们对过去的增长过程知之甚少。然而，它们在分析方面的贡献似乎并不那么突出。他们研究经济增长的理论框架是适用于不同时期的哈罗德-多马模型。内生变量是投资或储蓄率和资本产出率。在每个时期，资本产出比都是一个技术常数，储蓄率是解释产出增长的主要因素。资本产出比虽然随着技术的变化而变化，但它是经济系统不变的固定参数。被数量经济史学家视为固定的参数，是由计量经济学方法在系统中内生地确定的。例如，资本产出比不仅取决于现有的生产技术，还取决于资本和劳动力的相对稀缺性。大多数计量经济学模型所假设的生产结构更为一般，有一个以上决定产出的解释变量。产出一般不像哈罗德-多马模型假设的列昂惕夫生产函数那样是资本（或劳动）的线性函数，而是由资本和劳动同时决定的。计量经济学模型不仅引入了生产函数，还引入了其他行为和技术方程。这些方程与会计关系相结合，形成一个完整的联立方程组。这种平等的制度--
In the postwar period a great amount of interest was generated in obtaining the estimates of GNP and its related components over a long span of time for various countries. The rise of this interest was due mainly to the desire to understand the historical process of the economic growth of advanced countries and to the desire of shedding some light on future development problems of backward countries. Those who are engaged in processing data into a form meaningful to economists are quantitative economic historians. One of their greatest contributions lies in obtaining the estimates of GNP and other indicators of economic activities; without these we know very little of the growth process in the past. Their analytical contribution, however, does not seem to be so distinguished. The theoretical framework they adopt in studying economic growth is the Harrod-Domar model applied to different epochs. The endogenous variables are investment or saving ratio and capital-output ratio. During each epoch the capital-output ratio is a technical constant, and the saving ratio is the primary factor which explains the growth of output. The capital-output ratio changes from one epoch to another due to technical change, but it is the fixed parameter which the economic system cannot change. The parameters which are treated as fixed by quantitative economic historians are determined endogenously in the system by the econometric approach. The capitaloutput ratio, for example, is determined not only by the available production techniques but also by the relative scarcity of capital and labor. The production structure assumed by most econometric models is more general and has more than one explanatory variable determining output. Output is not generally, as in the Leontief production function assumed by the Harrod-Domar model, a linear function of capital (or labor), but it is determined by capital and labor simultaneously. The econometric model introduces not only production functions, but also other behavior and technical equations. These equations are combined with accounting relations to form a complete system of simultaneous equations. This system of equa-