Political model of social evolution
Political model of social evolution
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社会演化的政治模型
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1019454108
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Sonin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Acemoglu;Georgy Egorov;K. Sonin
几乎所有的民主社会在社会和政治上都是从威权和非民主政权演变而来的。这些变化不仅改变了社会经济资源的分配，也改变了政治权力的结构。在这篇文章中，我们开发了一个框架来研究政治和社会变化的动力。社会由关心当前和未来的社会安排和经济分配的代理人组成；政治权力的分配决定了谁有能力实施经济分配和未来权力分配的变化。任何时间点可用的社会规则和分配都是随机的。我们表明，政治和社会变化可能在没有任何随机冲击的情况下发生，也可能是由于冲击破坏了原本稳定的社会安排而发生的。至关重要的是，社会变革的过程是偶然的(和历史相关的)：随机事件的时机和顺序决定了长期均衡的社会安排。例如，民主化的程度可能取决于对未来一套可行改革的早期不确定性如何得到解决。
Almost all democratic societies evolved socially and politically out of authoritarian and nondemocratic regimes. These changes not only altered the allocation of economic resources in society but also the structure of political power. In this paper, we develop a framework for studying the dynamics of political and social change. The society consists of agents that care about current and future social arrangements and economic allocations; allocation of political power determines who has the capacity to implement changes in economic allocations and future allocations of power. The set of available social rules and allocations at any point in time is stochastic. We show that political and social change may happen without any stochastic shocks or as a result of a shock destabilizing an otherwise stable social arrangement. Crucially, the process of social change is contingent (and history-dependent): the timing and sequence of stochastic events determine the long-run equilibrium social arrangements. For example, the extent of democratization may depend on how early uncertainty about the set of feasible reforms in the future is resolved.