Future projections of water level and thermal regime changes of a multipurpose subtropical reservoir (Sao Paulo, Brazil)
Future projections of water level and thermal regime changes of a multipurpose subtropical reservoir (Sao Paulo, Brazil)
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144741
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发表时间：
2021-01-30
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Sarmento Buarque, Ana Carolina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barbosa, Carolina Cerqueira;Calijuri, Maria do Carmo;Sarmento Buarque, Ana Carolina
全球气温的上升以及气候变化造成的降雨量变化一直在影响湖泊和水库水位波动和热状况的动态。预计在本十年结束时，这种影响将更加明显，并可能损害内陆沃茨的使用。然而，很少有人知道气候变化的可能后果，在多用途亚热带水库。使用区域化气候模型（RCM）生成的数据作为简单水文模型和一维垂直水动力模型的输入，我们预测了巴西圣保罗Itupararanga水库在未来十年的一个典型时间段（2028-2030）的潜在变化。考虑了两种代表性浓度路径情景：一种是乐观情景，对应于二氧化碳增加约650 ppm（RCP 4.5），另一种是悲观情景，即2100年二氧化碳超过1000 ppm（RCP 8.5）。我们发现，与目前的条件相比，这两种情况下的水库水位都大幅下降了35%。表面水温预计将增加（+0.6摄氏度）;另一方面，将有一个冷却的下层（RCP 4.5=-0.3摄氏度; RCP 8.5=-1.2摄氏度）。另一个后果是，在干旱期（7月至8月）开始的分层期的持续时间增加，以及水柱稳定性的加强（与当前条件相比增加了43%）和温跃层的加深。水动力学模拟结果表明，水位下降可能会威胁到水库的多种用途，特别是饮用水供应和发电。此外，地表水层的加热以及分层天数和热稳定性的增加可能对水质产生不利影响。(C)2021爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
The increase in global air temperatures as well as variability in rainfall shifts due to climate change has been affecting the dynamics of water level fluctuations and thermal regimes in lakes and reservoirs. It is expected that at the end of this decade, such impacts will be even more noticeable and may harm the inland waters use. However, little is known about the possible consequences of climate change in multipurpose subtropical reservoirs. Using data generated by a regionalized climate model (RCM) as input to a simple hydrological model and a one-dimensional vertical hydrodynamic model, we forecast potential changes in the Itupararanga reservoir, Sao Paulo, Brazil, in an exemplary time period (2028-2030) in the next decade. Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios were considered: an optimistic one corresponding to a CO2 increase of about 650 ppm (RCP 4.5) and a pessimistic scenario where CO2 exceeds 1000 ppm in 2100 (RCP 8.5). We found a significant reduction in the reservoir water level for both scenarios of 35% compared to current conditions. The surface water temperature is expected to increase (+0.6 degrees C); on the other hand, there would be a cooling of the hypolimnion (RCP 4.5=-0.3 degrees C; RCP 8.5=-1.2 degrees C). Another consequence is an increase of the duration of stratification periods that would start earlier in the dry period (between July and August), as well as the intensification of the stability of the water column (+43% compared to current conditions) and a deepening of the thermocline. The hydrodynamic modeling results suggest that the water level drop may threaten the reservoir multiple uses, in particular drinking water supply and power generation. Furthermore, the heating of surface water layers and increase of the number of stratified days and thermal stability can have negative impacts on water quality. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.