Simulating the game-theoretic market equilibrium and contract-driven investment in global gas trade using an agent-based method
Simulating the game-theoretic market equilibrium and contract-driven investment in global gas trade using an agent-based method
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2018.07.024
复制
发表时间：
2018-10
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Yingjian Guo;A. Hawkes
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yingjian Guo;A. Hawkes
为了了解美国替代性液化天然气出口策略如何影响未来全球天然气市场动态，使用基于代理的框架开发了全球规模的gas - game模型。这是第一个具有明确的合同驱动产能扩张过程的模型，允许投资者持有不完全的远见，并模拟全球天然气贸易中的市场力量。有了这些功能，Gas-GAME可以根据每个市场参与者的动机和观点来分析市场发展。该模型采用混合互补问题方法模拟短期博弈论市场均衡。对于长期投资决策，对考虑进口要求和出口盈利能力的双边合同过程进行建模。提出并验证了一个基本案例，然后是考虑美国出口战略的案例研究。当美国在出口扩张方面保持保守时，就会出现天然气供应紧张，导致欧洲继续依赖俄罗斯天然气，并在中国市场转向通过管道进口天然气。相反，当美国大举投资时，中东和澳大利亚的收入都出现了重大损失，西欧建设了更多的再气化工厂，以替代俄罗斯的供应。gas - game捕捉了市场力量、短期价格和长期合同之间的基本动态，为全球天然气市场提供了更细致入微的视角。
To understand how the alternative US liquefied natural gas exportation strategies may affect future global gas market dynamics, a global-scale model Gas-GAME is developed using an agent-based framework. This is the first model having explicit contract-driven capacity expansion process, allowing investors to hold imperfect foresights, and simulating market power in global gas trade. With these features, Gas-GAME can analyse market development subject to the incentives and perspectives of each market player. The model simulates short-term game-theoretical market equilibrium with Mixed Complementarity Problem approach. For long-term investment decisions, bilateral contracting processes considering both import requests and export profitability are modelled. A base case is presented and validated, followed by a case study considering US export strategy. When the US stays conservative in export expansion, gas supply tightness occurs, leading to continuing European dependence on Russian gas, and a shift to pipeline-based import in the Chinese market. Conversely, when the US invests aggressively, Middle East and Australia both see significant revenue losses, and Western Europe constructs more regasification plants to provide alternatives to Russian supply. Gas-GAME captures the essential dynamics between market power, short-term prices and long-term contracts to provide a more nuanced view of global gas market.