Spatio-temporal propagation of COVID-19 pandemics
Spatio-temporal propagation of COVID-19 pandemics
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DOI：
10.1209/0295-5075/131/58003
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发表时间：
2020-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
Havlin, Shlomo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gross, Bnaya;Zheng, Zhiguo;Havlin, Shlomo
被称为COVID-19的冠状病毒自2019年12月以来在全球蔓延。在没有任何疫苗或药物的情况下，控制它的手段仅限于隔离和社交距离。在这里，我们研究了COVID-19病毒在中国的第一波时空传播，并将其与全球其他地区进行了比较。我们提供了一个全面的图片从湖北到中国其他省份的空间传播的距离，人口规模，和人类流动性和他们的标度关系。由于城市之间通常实行严格的隔离，因此通过分析城市内的疫情，特别是受政策影响的感染率、死亡率和康复率的时间演变，可以更好地了解疾病的时间演变。我们比较了中国不同城市和意大利不同省份的感染率，发现疾病传播的特点是两个阶段的过程。在早期，在几天的数量级中，感染率接近于常数，这可能是由于缺乏在观察到感染症状之前检测感染个体的手段。然后在稍后的时间，它会由于衰变而近似呈指数衰减。这种指数衰减使我们能够定义控制疾病的特征时间，我们发现中国大多数城市的控制时间约为20天，与意大利不同省份的控制时间相比，意大利不同省份的控制时间要长得多，表明控制政策效率较低。此外，我们还研究了死亡率和康复率的时间演变，我们发现它们表现出与感染率相似的行为，反映了卫生系统可能超载的情况。
The coronavirus known as COVID-19 has spread worldwide since December 2019. Without any vaccination or medicine, the means of controlling it are limited to quarantine and social distancing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation of the first wave of the COVID-19 virus in China and compare it to other global locations. We provide a comprehensive picture of the spatial propagation from Hubei to other provinces in China in terms of distance, population size, and human mobility and their scaling relations. Since strict quarantine has been usually applied between cities, more insight into the temporal evolution of the disease can be obtained by analyzing the epidemic within cities, especially the time evolution of the infection, death, and recovery rates which affected by policies. We compare the infection rate in different cities in China and provinces in Italy and find that the disease spread is characterized by a two-stages process. In early times, of the order of few days, the infection rate is close to a constant probably due to the lack of means to detect infected individuals before infection symptoms are observed. Then at later times it decays approximately exponentially due to quarantines. This exponential decay allows us to define a characteristic time of controlling the disease which we found to be approximately 20 days for most cities in China in marked contrast to different provinces in Italy which are characterized with much longer controlling time indicating less efficient controlling policies. Moreover, we study the time evolution of the death and recovery rates which we found to show similar behavior as the infection rate and reflect the health system situation which could be overloaded.