Dollarization in Transition Economies: Evidence and Policy Implications
Dollarization in Transition Economies: Evidence and Policy Implications
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转型经济体的美元化：证据和政策影响
DOI：
10.5089/9781451950083.001
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发表时间：
1995
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Carlos A. Végh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Sahay;Carlos A. Végh
在1990年代初放宽了对持有外币的大多数限制之后，转型经济体的外币存款迅速增加。本文首先考察了15个转型经济体美元化的证据，然后讨论了一些关键的概念和政策含义。由于体制限制，外币存款占广义货币的比例在1992-93年达到30%至60%的峰值。然而，与拉丁美洲不同的是，在爱沙尼亚、立陶宛、蒙古和波兰成功实施稳定计划之后，美元化程度大幅下降。由于外币存款主要反映了一种投资组合选择，美元化程度的下降可主要归因于通货膨胀率降低和利率更多地由市场决定，使本币资产的真实的回报率提高。
After most restrictions on foreign currency holdings were relaxed in the early 1990s, foreign currency deposits in transition economies have been increasing rapidly. This paper takes a first look at the evidence on dollarization for 15 transition economies, and then discusses some key conceptual and policy implications. Depending on the institutional constraints, foreign currency deposits as a proportion of broad money reached a peak of between 30 and 60 percent in 1992-93. Unlike what has been observed in Latin America, however, dollarization has fallen substantially in the aftermath of successful stabilization plans in Estonia, Lithuania, Mongolia, and Poland. Since foreign currency deposits reflect mainly a portfolio choice, the fall in dollarization can be primarily attributed to higher real returns on domestic-currency assets, as a result of lower inflation and more market-determined interest rates.