Climate change and infectious disease: helminthological challenges to farmed ruminants in temperate regions
Climate change and infectious disease: helminthological challenges to farmed ruminants in temperate regions
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DOI：
10.1017/s1751731109990991
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发表时间：
2010-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Skuce, P. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
van Dijk, J.;Sargison, N. D.;Skuce, P. J.
在英国，与30年的月平均气温相比，最近的平均气温持续上升1摄氏度至4摄氏度。此外，英国所有可用的预测模型都表明，气候可能会进一步变化，出现更多极端天气事件，并出现冬季更潮湿、更温和、夏季更干燥、更炎热的趋势。这些变化将在空间和/或时间上改变地方病的流行，并影响动物健康和福利。在这些地方性寄生虫中，最值得注意的是蠕虫，已被证明通过影响其在牧场上自由生活的幼虫阶段，受到短期天气和气候的强烈影响。在这篇综述中，我们研究了主要蠕虫物种的流行病学和流行病学的最新趋势，并考虑这些趋势是否与气候有关。我们确定了温度和降雨对自由生活阶段的可能影响，以及在变化的气候条件下可能决定寄生虫丰度的一些关键寄生虫特征。我们发现明确的证据表明，气候变化，特别是温度升高，已经改变了英国地方性蠕虫的整体丰度，季节性和空间传播。我们探讨了一些混杂因素和替代解释所观察到的模式。最后，我们探讨了这些研究结果对政策制定者和畜牧业的影响，并对未来的研究重点提出了一些建议。
In the UK, recent mean temperatures have consistently increased by between 1 degrees C and 4 degrees C compared to the 30-year monthly averages. Furthermore, all available predictive models for the UK indicate that the climate is likely to change further and feature more extreme weather events and a trend towards wetter, milder winters and hotter drier summers. These changes will alter the prevalence of endemic diseases spatially and/or temporally and impact on animal health and welfare. Most notable among these endemic parasites are the helminths, which have been shown to be very strongly influenced by both the short-term weather and climate through effects on their free-living larval stages on pasture. In this review, we examine recent trends in prevalence and epidemiology of key helminth species and consider whether these could be climate-related. We identify likely effects of temperature and rainfall on the free-living stages and some key parasite traits likely to determine parasite abundance under changed climatic conditions. We find clear evidence that climate change, especially elevated temperature, has already changed the overall abundance, seasonality and spatial spread of endemic helminths in the UK. We explore some confounders and alternative explanations for the observed patterns. Finally, we explore the implications of these findings for policy makers and the livestock industry and make some recommendations for future research priorities.