Alcohol and fatal accidents in the United States--a time series analysis for 1950-2002.
Alcohol and fatal accidents in the United States--a time series analysis for 1950-2002.
复制标题
美国的酒精和致命事故——1950-2002 年的时间序列分析。
DOI：
10.1016/j.aap.2008.01.008
复制
发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Ramstedt,Mats
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ramstedt,Mats
目的估计美国人均酒精消费量和致命事故之间的关联，并将结果与欧洲和加拿大的调查结果进行比较。数据和方法使用Box-Jenkins时间序列分析技术，对1950-2002年按性别和年龄划分的致命事故数据进行了分析。人均消费量增加后，平均每100 000名居民中有4.4名男性死亡，但对女性事故死亡率没有显著影响。关于具体类别的事故，致命机动车辆事故的影响占男子总体影响的很大一部分，对妇女也很重要。在致命的坠落事故和其他事故方面，只有年轻男性受到显著影响。至于女性，与加拿大和欧洲相比，美国人均消费的关联性较弱。然而，美国对男性总体事故的影响估计与北方欧洲（5.2）或加拿大（5.9）一样强，并且强于中欧和南欧（分别为2.1和1.6）。关于酒精和致命的机动车事故，3.2的男性的协会是强于欧洲和更相似的加拿大findings.CONCLUSIONSPer人均酒精消费量至少部分是男性致命事故的发展，特别是机动车事故率在战后美国的一个解释。高交通密度和相对较高的法律的限制酒后驾驶血液酒精浓度（BAC）的建议，以解释酒精和致命的机动车事故之间的强关联。研究结果还表明，人均消费量的减少对年轻男性的致命事故具有最大的预防作用。
AIMSTo estimate the association between per capita alcohol consumption and fatal accidents in the United States and to compare the outcome with findings from Europe and Canada.DATA AND METHODYearly data on fatal accidents by gender and age were analysed in relation to per capita alcohol consumption for 1950–2002 using the Box–Jenkins technique for time series analysis.FINDINGSA 1-L increase in per capita consumption was on average followed by 4.4 male deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, but had no significant effect on female accident mortality. Regarding specific categories of accidents, the effect on fatal motor vehicle accidents accounted for a large part of the overall effect for men and was also significant for women. With respect to fatal falling accidents and other accidents, the only significant effects were found among young males. As concerns women, the association with per capita consumption in the US was weak in comparison with Canada and Europe. The US effect estimate for overall male accidents was however equally strong as in Northern Europe (5.2) or Canada (5.9), and stronger than that found in Central and Southern Europe (2.1 and 1.6, respectively). With respect to alcohol and fatal motor vehicle accidents, the association for men of 3.2 was stronger than in Europe and more similar to the Canadian finding (3.6).CONCLUSIONSPer capita alcohol consumption has at least partly been an explanation for the development of male fatal accidents and particularly motor vehicle accident rates in the post-war United States. High traffic density and relatively high legal limits for drunken driving blood alcohol concentration (BAC) are suggested to explain the strong association found between alcohol and fatal motor vehicle accidents. The results also suggest that a reduction in per capita consumption would have its most preventive impact on fatal accidents among younger males.