Climatological predictions of the auroral zone locations driven by moderate and severe space weather events.
Climatological predictions of the auroral zone locations driven by moderate and severe space weather events.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-022-25704-2
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发表时间：
2023-01-15
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Freeman, Mervyn P. P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Maffei, Stefano;Eggington, Joseph W. B.;Livermore, Philip W. W.;Mound, Jonathan E. E.;Sanchez, Sabrina;Eastwood, Jonathan P. P.;Freeman, Mervyn P. P.
一般来说，极光带是由于太阳活动导致极光最容易被发现的区域。它们的形状以及同样易受极端空间天气事件影响的地理位置（我们称之为“危险区”）受到地球随时间变化的内部磁场的调节，其结构在每年到十年的时间尺度上发生变化。未来几十年减轻地面空间天气影响的战略可以受益于这种演变的准确预报。现有的极光带预报使用对地磁场变化的简化假设。通过利用基于地核动力学的现代地磁场预测能力，我们估计了未来50年极光区和危险区的演变。我们的研究结果预测，在欧洲、澳大利亚和新西兰，与空间天气相关的风险不会发生显著变化。爱丁堡、哥本哈根和达尼丁等中高纬度城市仍将处于高风险地区。然而，北美极光和危险区域向北的变化可能会导致埃德蒙顿和拉布拉多市等城市中心在2070年受到强烈太阳活动的潜在影响。
Auroral zones are regions where, in an average sense, aurorae due to solar activity are most likely spotted. Their shape and, similarly, the geographical locations most vulnerable to extreme space weather events (which we term ‘danger zones’) are modulated by Earth’s time-dependent internal magnetic field whose structure changes on yearly to decadal timescales. Strategies for mitigating ground-based space weather impacts over the next few decades can benefit from accurate forecasts of this evolution. Existing auroral zone forecasts use simplified assumptions of geomagnetic field variations. By harnessing the capability of modern geomagnetic field forecasts based on the dynamics of Earth’s core we estimate the evolution of the auroral zones and of the danger zones over the next 50 years. Our results predict that space-weather related risk will not change significantly in Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Mid-to-high latitude cities such as Edinburgh, Copenhagen and Dunedin will remain in high-risk regions. However, northward change of the auroral and danger zones over North America will likely cause urban centres such as Edmonton and Labrador City to be exposed by 2070 to the potential impact of severe solar activity.
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影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Aubert, Julien;Finlay, Christopher C.;Fournier, Alexandre
通讯作者：
Fournier, Alexandre
影响因子：
3
作者：
Baerenzung, Julien;Holschneider, Matthias;Sanchez, Sabrina
通讯作者：
Sanchez, Sabrina
影响因子：
3
作者：
Finlay, Christopher C.;Olsen, Nils;Toffner-Clausen, Lars
通讯作者：
Toffner-Clausen, Lars
影响因子：
3
作者：
Gillet, Nicolas;Barrois, Olivier;Finlay, Christopher C.
通讯作者：
Finlay, Christopher C.
DOI：
10.1186/s40623-020-01252-9
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
Earth, planets, and space : EPS
影响因子：
--
作者：
Finlay CC;Kloss C;Olsen N;Hammer MD;Tøffner-Clausen L;Grayver A;Kuvshinov A
通讯作者：
Kuvshinov A