Technology and material efficiency scenarios for net zero emissions in the UK steel sector
Technology and material efficiency scenarios for net zero emissions in the UK steel sector
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.130216
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发表时间：
2021-12
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Alice Garvey;J. Norman;J. Barrett
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Alice Garvey;J. Norman;J. Barrett
随着英国立法制定2050年净零排放目标，迫切需要彻底的工业脱碳。2016年，钢铁行业占英国工业排放的12%，因此是减排的关键目标。主流情景分析不同地假设使用未经证实的碳捕获和封存(CCS)或减少钢铁需求，以便在2050年前达到1.5摄氏度的兼容预算。这项分析的目的是：a)评估当前技术选择(不包括CCS)朝着与净零一致的累积预算的缓解潜力，并假设钢铁需求不变；b)评估材料效率弥补任何缓解差距的潜力(材料效率提供同样有用的“服务”，而能源密集型材料的投入更少)；c)讨论部门预算假设的重要性和在估计该行业所需的未来缓解规模方面的其他不确定性，以及由此产生的政策影响。我们模拟了四个关键技术情景，包括钢铁厂改造、根据最佳实践标准更换炼钢技术、将燃料转移到更大的电弧炉(EAF)生产，以及根据不同的雄心水平实施选定的新技术。与恒定的基线相比，技术情景可将温室气体(GHG)累计排放量(2016-2050)减少高达44%，而结合技术和材料效率情景可实现高达53%的减排。我们还发现，虽然电网电力脱碳和更早的需求减少可以实现额外的缓解，但从长远来看，可能仍然需要一些CCS能力来解决剩余排放问题。在最具雄心的情况下，假设电网脱碳，到2050年，钢铁行业的温室气体绝对排放量将比2016年减少80%。我们发现，最有效的干预措施是通过现有的技术，如改造、更换和电弧炉生产，因为它们可以立即获得，条件是它们的实施速度比之前观察到的更快。鉴于新技术的商业化限制，材料效率和电弧炉生产等结构性转变被认为非常重要。然而，结构变化必然会通过政策影响得更加复杂，而且英国几乎没有通过设计来影响结构变化的先例。我们的结果表明，只有将材料效率和技术选项结合在一起的互补情景才能在英国实现接近于零的缓解水平。我们的结论是，在英国钢铁行业实现净零排放是可能的，但这将需要更高和更早的材料效率水平和一定程度的CCS去除能力。
With the UK's legislation of a 2050 net zero emissions target, there is urgent need for radical industrial decarbonisation. The steel sector represented 12% of UK industrial emissions in 2016 and is therefore a critical target for mitigation. Mainstream scenario analyses variously assume use of unproven Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) or reductions to steel demand in order to reach a 1.5 °C compatible budget by 2050. This analysis aims to: a) assess the mitigation potential of current technology options (excluding CCS) towards a cumulative budget aligned to net zero and assuming constant steel demand; b) to evaluate the potential of material efficiency to close any mitigation gaps, (where material efficiency is providing the same useful ‘service’ with less input of energy-intensive materials); and c) to discuss the importance of sectoral budget assumptions and other uncertainties in estimating the scale of future mitigation required by the industry and the policy implications of this. We modelled four key technology scenarios including steel plant retrofit, replacement of steelmaking technologies to best practice standards, fuel shifts to greater Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) production, and implementation of selected novel technologies, under different ambition levels. Technology scenarios could reduce cumulative Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions (2016–2050) by as much as 44% against a constant baseline, whilst coupled technology and material efficiency scenarios could achieve reductions of as much as 53%. We also find that whilst grid electricity decarbonisation and earlier demand reduction can achieve additional mitigation, there may still be a need for some CCS capacity in the long-term to address residual emissions. In the most ambitious case, absolute GHG emissions from the steel sector reduced by 80% by 2050 against 2016 levels, assuming grid decarbonisation. We found that the most effective interventions were through established technologies, such as retrofit, replacement and EAF production, since they were immediately available, with the condition they are implemented faster than previously observed. Given the commercialisation constraints of novel technologies, structural shifts such as material efficiency and EAF production were considered highly important. However, structural changes are necessarily more complex to influence via policy, and there is little precedent for structural change by design in the UK. Our results show that only complementary scenarios combining material efficiency and technology options would achieve a level of mitigation near to net zero in the UK. We conclude that it is possible to achieve net zero emissions in the UK steel sector, but that this would require greater and earlier levels of material efficiency and some degree of CCS removal capacity.