Reassessing the ins and outs of unemployment
Reassessing the ins and outs of unemployment
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DOI：
10.1016/j.red.2012.02.001
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发表时间：
2012-04-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Shimer, Robert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shimer, Robert
本文使用易于获取的累计时间序列来衡量就业工人失业的概率和失业工人找到工作的概率，即失业的来龙去脉。自1948年以来，找到工作的概率占美国失业率波动的四分之三，失业概率占四分之一。在过去二十年中，就业退出概率的波动在数量上是无关紧要的。本文利用基本的微观经济数据表明，这些结果不是由于搜索工人池的构成变化，也不是由于工人进出劳动力的流动。这些结果与自1990年以来指导劳动力市场宏观经济模型发展的传统智慧相矛盾。(C) 2012爱思唯尔公司版权所有。
This paper uses readily accessible aggregate time series to measure the probability that an employed worker becomes unemployed and the probability that an unemployed worker finds a job, the ins and outs of unemployment. Since 1948, the job finding probability has accounted for three-quarters of the fluctuations in the unemployment rate in the United States and the employment exit probability for one-quarter. Fluctuations in the employment exit probability are quantitatively irrelevant during the last two decades. Using the underlying microeconomic data, the paper shows that these results are not due to compositional changes in the pool of searching workers, nor are they due to movements of workers in and out of the labor force. These results contradict the conventional wisdom that has guided the development of macroeconomic models of the labor market since 1990. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.