Reparations for Black American descendants of persons enslaved in the U.S. and their potential impact on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
Reparations for Black American descendants of persons enslaved in the U.S. and their potential impact on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.113741
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发表时间：
2021-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jones JH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Richardson ET;Malik MM;Darity WA Jr;Mullen AK;Morse ME;Malik M;Maybank A;Bassett MT;Farmer PE;Worden L;Jones JH
在美国，美国黑人患新冠肺炎的比例明显不成比例。除了单纯的流行病学统计之外，种族正义干预，包括赔偿支付，改善这些差距的潜力还没有得到充分的探索。我们比较了在社会公平方面相对不同的政体(韩国和路易斯安那州)的新冠肺炎时变RT曲线。接下来，我们考虑了一系列繁殖比率，以反向计算路易斯安那州疫情的简化下一代矩阵(用于结构化模型计算R0)的4个 细胞的传播率。最后，我们考虑了作为对在美国被奴役的美国黑人后代的赔偿的潜在结构性影响，这将对干预前产生潜在的结构性影响，从而导致R0。一旦它们各自的疫情开始传播，路易斯安那州的RT值与韩国相比绝对差异为1.3-2.5。路易斯安那州还需要两倍以上的时间才能将RT降至1以下。我们通过矩阵传递模型推理增加公平的后果，展示了成功的赔偿计划的好处(反映在比率中)如何将R0降低31%-68%。虽然有令人信服的道德和历史论据支持种族不公正干预，如赔偿，但我们的研究考虑了降低SARS-CoV-2传播风险的潜在健康益处。针对黑人个人的恢复原状计划不仅将降低财富再分配接受者的新冠肺炎风险；缓解效果还将在不同种族之间分配，使广大民众受益。
In the United States, Black Americans are suffering from a significantly disproportionate incidence of COVID-19. Going beyond mere epidemiological tallying, the potential for racial-justice interventions, including reparations payments, to ameliorate these disparities has not been adequately explored. We compared the COVID-19 time-varying Rt curves of relatively disparate polities in terms of social equity (South Korea vs. Louisiana). Next, we considered a range of reproductive ratios to back-calculate the transmission rates for 4 cells of the simplified next-generation matrix (from which R0 is calculated for structured models) for the outbreak in Louisiana. Lastly, we considered the potential structural effects monetary payments as reparations for Black American descendants of persons enslaved in the U.S. would have had on pre-intervention and consequently R0. Once their respective epidemics begin to propagate, Louisiana displays Rt values with an absolute difference of 1.3–2.5 compared to South Korea. It also takes Louisiana more than twice as long to bring Rt below 1. Reasoning through the consequences of increased equity via matrix transmission models, we demonstrate how the benefits of a successful reparations program (reflected in the ratio ) could reduce R0 by 31–68%. While there are compelling moral and historical arguments for racial-injustice interventions such as reparations, our study considers potential health benefits in the form of reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk. A restitutive program targeted towards Black individuals would not only decrease COVID-19 risk for recipients of the wealth redistribution; the mitigating effects would also be distributed across racial groups, benefiting the population at large.
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