Ready for nuclear energy?: An assessment of capacities and motivations for launching new national nuclear power programs
Ready for nuclear energy?: An assessment of capacities and motivations for launching new national nuclear power programs
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.041
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发表时间：
2011-03
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
J. Jewell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Jewell
国际原子能机构报告说，截至2009年7月，有52个国家有兴趣建造他们的第一座核电站。本文从发展核电的能力和动机两个方面对这些“新兴国家”进行了描述和评价。它量化了历史上与核能计划发展相关的因素，然后根据这些数据对新来者进行基准测试。拥有核电计划的国家，特别是那些核设施为私人所有的国家，通常是规模更大、更富裕、政治稳定的经济体，政府效率更高。核电在历史上是在电力消费高增长时期推出的。核电潜力的其他指标包括：国家电网的规模、国际电网连接的存在以及电力生产燃料供应的安全性。我们确定了10个最接近于已建立的核电国家的新国家，因此最有可能部署核能，10个由于高度政治不稳定而发展核能不确定的国家，14个国家的核能发展能力较低，可能需要特别强有力的国际合作，18个国家的核能发展可能性较小，他们的能力和积极性都很低。
The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that as of July 2009 there were 52 countries interested in building their first nuclear power plant. This paper characterizes and evaluates these “Newcomer Countries” in terms of their capacity and motivations to develop nuclear power. It quantifies factors historically associated with the development of nuclear energy programs and then benchmarks the Newcomers against these data. Countries with established nuclear power programs, particularly where nuclear facilities are privately owned, are typically larger, wealthier and politically stable economies with high government effectiveness. Nuclear power was historically launched during periods of high electricity consumption growth. Other indicators for the potential of nuclear power include: the size of the national grid, the presence of international grid connections and security of fuel supply for electricity production. We identify 10 Newcomers which most closely resemble the Established Nuclear Power Countries and thus are most likely to deploy nuclear energy, 10 countries where the development of nuclear energy is uncertain due to high political instability, 14 countries with lower capacities where pursuing nuclear energy may require especially strong international cooperation and 18 countries where the development of nuclear power is less likely due to their significantly lower capacities and motivations.