Confidence levels for tsunami-inundation limits in northern Oregon inferred from a 10,000-year history of great earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone
Confidence levels for tsunami-inundation limits in northern Oregon inferred from a 10,000-year history of great earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone
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根据卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带一万年的大地震历史推断俄勒冈州北部海啸淹没极限的置信水平
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发表时间：
2010
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通讯作者：
A. Baptista
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作者：
G. Priest;C. Goldfinger;Kelin Wang;R. Witter;Yinglong J. Zhang;A. Baptista
为了探索卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带的局部海啸危险，我们(1)评估地震破裂过程的地质合理变异性，(2)指定25个确定的地震源，(3)使用产生的垂直同震形变来模拟俄勒冈州坎农海滩的海啸淹没。最大滑移量为9-30米(NAVD88)的地震，滑动幅度为8-38米，兆瓦为8.3-9.4。与三次海啸沉积相一致的最小俯冲带滑动为14-15米。通过使用逻辑树为震源情景分配可变权重，我们得出了百分位数淹没线，表示卡斯卡迪亚海啸不会超过这条线的置信度水平(百分比)。卡斯卡迪亚海啸99%的变化被Runup≤30米覆盖，90%的≤16米被“首选”(最高权重)值~10米覆盖。假设的最大考虑远距离海啸的Runup为~11米，而历史最大值为~6.5m。
To explore the local tsunami hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone we (1) evaluate geologically reasonable variability of the earthquake rupture process, (2) specify 25 deterministic earthquake sources, and (3) use resulting vertical coseismic deformations for simulation of tsunami inundation at Cannon Beach, Oregon. Maximum runup was 9–30 m (NAVD88) from earthquakes with slip of ~8–38 m and Mw ~8.3–9.4. Minimum subduction zone slip consistent with three tsunami deposits was 14–15 m. By assigning variable weights to the source scenarios using a logic tree, we derived percentile inundation lines that express the confidence level (percentage) that a Cascadia tsunami will not exceed the line. Ninety-nine percent of Cascadia tsunami variation is covered by runup ≤30 m and 90% ≤16 m with a “preferred” (highest weight) value of ~10 m. A hypothetical maximum-considered distant tsunami had runup of ~11 m, while the historical maximum was ~6.5 m.