Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of Rabies for Dog, Chinese Ferret Badger and Human Interactions in Zhejiang Province, China
Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of Rabies for Dog, Chinese Ferret Badger and Human Interactions in Zhejiang Province, China
复制标题
对中国浙江省狗、獾和人类互动的狂犬病传播动力学进行建模
DOI：
10.1007/s11538-018-00537-1
复制
发表时间：
2019-04-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Wu, Xiao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Huang, Jicai;Ruan, Shigui;Wu, Xiao
人类狂犬病是中国主要的公共卫生问题之一，平均每年有1977例病例。据估计，95%的人类狂犬病病例是由狗咬伤造成的。近年来，与野生动物相关的人类狂犬病病例数量有所增加，特别是在中国大陆的东南部和东北地区。雪貂獾（CFB）是最受欢迎的野生动物之一，主要分布在中国东南部地区。 1994年，浙江省湖州首次记录了由狂犬病CFB引起的人间病例。1996年至2004年，浙江省共发生30多例由CFB咬伤引起的人间病例。本文根据浙江省已报告的由狗和CFB引起的人类狂犬病数据，提出了狗-CFB-人传播狂犬病的多宿主人畜共患模型。我们首先评估基本再生数，讨论无病平衡的稳定性，并研究疾病的持续性。然后我们使用我们的模型拟合浙江省2004年至2017年的报告数据并预测人或牲畜狂犬病的趋势。最后通过对基本繁殖数参数进行敏感性分析发现，犬与CFB之间的传播、犬只数量、犬只疫苗接种率在狂犬病传播中起着重要作用。我们的研究表明，狂犬病控制和预防策略应包括加强公众对狂犬病的教育和认识、提高狗的疫苗接种率、减少狗与 CFB 的相互作用以及避免 CFB 咬伤或接触。
Human rabies is one of the major public health problems in China with an average of 1977 cases per year. It is estimated that 95% of these human rabies cases are due to dog bites. In recent years, the number of wildlife-associated human rabies cases has increased, particularly in the southeast and northeast regions of mainland China. Chinese ferret badgers (CFBs) are one of the most popular wildlife animals which are distributed mostly in the southeast region of China. Human cases caused by rabid CFB were first recorded in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province, in 1994. From 1996 to 2004, more than 30 human cases were caused by CFB bites in Zhejiang Province. In this paper, based on the reported data of the human rabies caused by both dogs and CFB in Zhejiang Province, we propose a multi-host zoonotic model for the dog–CFB–human transmission of rabies. We first evaluate the basic reproduction numberdiscuss the stability of the disease-free equilibrium, and study persistence of the disease. Then we use our model to fit the reported data in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2017 and forecast the trend of human or livestock rabies. Finally by carrying out sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number in terms of parameters, we find that the transmission between dogs and CFB, the quantity of dogs, and the vaccination rate of dogs play important roles in the transmission of rabies. Our study suggests that rabies control and prevention strategies should include enhancing public education and awareness about rabies, increasing dog vaccination rate, reducing the dog and CFB interactions, and avoiding CFB bites or contact.