Bayesian estimation of input parameters of a nitrogen cycle model applied to a forested reference watershed, Hubbard Brook Watershed Six
Bayesian estimation of input parameters of a nitrogen cycle model applied to a forested reference watershed, Hubbard Brook Watershed Six
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DOI：
10.1029/2004wr003551
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发表时间：
2005-03-08
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Weinstein, DA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hong, BG;Strawderman, RL;Weinstein, DA
本文提出了一种改进模拟模型输入参数估计的贝叶斯参数估计技术，并将该技术应用于氮循环模型SINIC，该模型已用于模拟1964-1994年间新罕布夏州哈伯德河流域6号流域的径流和径流硝酸盐通量。通过用通常以初始估计为中心且具有较大方差的值的概率分布或“先验”分布来替换每个估计值来考虑模型输入参数的初始估计的不确定性，然后通过结合关于模型输出变量的可用数据来“更新”这些先验分布，产生参数值的“后验”概率分布。用于计算氮矿化速率的几个关键参数被确定为控制该流域预测的硝酸盐输出的几个关键参数。通过结合对径流和径流硝酸盐通量的观测，大大减少了这些参数的不确定性。预测年径流硝酸盐通量的后验分布随年份的变化而变化，在径流硝酸盐通量高的年份具有较大的不确定性。
We present a Bayesian parameter estimation technique for improving estimates of simulation model input parameters and apply the technique to the nitrogen cycle model SINIC, which has been used to simulate the streamflow and streamflow nitrate flux at Hubbard Brook Watershed 6, New Hampshire, during the 1964-1994 period. Uncertainty in initial estimates of model input parameters was incorporated by replacing each estimate with a probability distribution of values, or "prior'' distribution, usually centered at the initial estimate and having a large variance. These prior distributions were then ``updated'' by incorporating available data on model output variables, producing a "posterior'' probability distribution of parameter values. Several key parameters used for calculating the N mineralization rate were identified as controlling the predicted nitrate export from this watershed. The level of uncertainty in these parameters was substantially reduced by incorporating the observations on streamflow and streamflow nitrate flux. The posterior distribution of predicted yearly streamflow nitrate flux shifted from year to year, with relatively large uncertainties in years with high streamflow nitrate flux.