Hurricane Intensity Predictability
Hurricane Intensity Predictability
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DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-15-00168.1
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发表时间：
2016-11
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
C. Kieu;Zach Moon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Kieu;Zach Moon
长期以来，由于大气固有的混沌性质，天气一直被预测为具有有限的可预测性;初始条件的微小变化可能导致一段时间后大气的完全不同的状态。鉴于大气流动的可预测性范围如此有限，一个自然的问题是，我们能提前多久预测飓风的强度？在这项研究中，它首先表明，在4-5天的提前时间飓风的强度的可预测性通常是由大尺度环境比飓风的初始条件。这一结果表明，未来改善飓风的长期强度预测的数值模型将实现大规模环境的改善，而不是在风暴的初始状态。在成熟阶段的飓风，直接估计的领先李雅普诺夫指数使用轴对称模型揭示，然而，存在一个混沌吸引子…
AbstractWeather has long been projected to possess limited predictability due to the inherent chaotic nature of the atmosphere; small changes in initial conditions could lead to an entirely different state of the atmosphere after some period of time. Given such a limited range of predictability of atmospheric flows, a natural question is, how far in advance can we predict a hurricane’s intensity? In this study, it is shown first that the predictability of a hurricane’s intensity at the 4–5-day lead times is generally determined more by the large-scale environment than by a hurricane’s initial conditions. This result suggests that future improvement in hurricane longer-range intensity forecasts by numerical models will be most realized as a result of improvement in the large-scale environment rather than in the storm’s initial state. At the mature stage of a hurricane, direct estimation of the leading Lyapunov exponent using an axisymmetric model reveals, nevertheless, the existence of a chaotic attractor ...