The Study of the Impact of Dynamical Core and Physical Parameterization Scheme on GRAPES-Meso Forecast Error
The Study of the Impact of Dynamical Core and Physical Parameterization Scheme on GRAPES-Meso Forecast Error
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发表时间：
2012
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通讯作者：
Long Ke-ji
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作者：
Long Ke-ji
为了研究GRAPES-Meso模式的预报误差特征，评估动力核心和物理参数化对GRAPES-Meso模式预报误差的影响，为GRAPES-Meso模式集合预报系统的设计提供参考，利用GRAPES-Meso模式进行了4次试验，分别对3个不同的典型个例进行了模拟。（1）GRAPES-Meso存在显著的系统误差，其水平和垂直分布特征主要来源于动力核心，物理参数化作用较小。（2）模式层与气压层的转换方案会给预报结果带来垂直插值误差，对模式空间的顶部和底部影响最大;（3）边界参数化对低层动力量的预报效果有显著影响，结果表明，GRAPES-Meso模式的改进应充分考虑低层动力学量的误差，而GRAPES-Meso模式的构造应考虑低层动力学量的误差在中尺度集合预报系统中，动力核引起的模式不确定性应予以充分考虑。
In order to study the characteristic of GRAPES-Meso forecast error and assess the influence of dynamical core and physical parameterization on the GRAPES-Meso forecast error,also provide reference for designing GRAPES-Meso ensemble prediction system,four tests based on GRAPES-Meso model are implemented each with three different typical cases simulated.The result shows that:(1)there is significant systematic error in GRAPES-Meso,with its horizontal and vertical distribution characteristic originated mainly from dynamical core and little from physical parameterization.(2)The vertical interpolation error could be introduced into forecast results,which is caused by the transformation scheme between model layer and pressure layer,and the top and bottom parts of model space are affected most;(3)Boundary parameterization can dramatically affect the forecasting result of dynamical quantity in lower level,as an significant error reduction of dynamical quantity in lower level.The conclusion is that much attention should be paid to the dynamical core for improving GRAPES-Meso model.To construct the GRAPES-Meso ensemble prediction system,the model uncertainty caused by dynamical core should be considered carefully.