Dutch elm disease revisited: past, present and future management in Great Britain
Dutch elm disease revisited: past, present and future management in Great Britain
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02391.x
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发表时间：
2011-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Knight, J. D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Harwood, T. D.;Tomlinson, I.;Knight, J. D.
20 世纪 60 年代，引起荷兰榆树病的一种新真菌传入英国，导致榆树大面积死亡，并且在榆树再生后仍然存在问题。控制这种疾病的尝试基本上不成功。然而，疫情爆发四十年后，研究人员仍然对这种严重而引人注目的疾病事件的潜在生物学原理以及从中吸取的政策教训感兴趣。我们开发了分辨率为 1 km(2) 的空间模型。在参数化重播历史流行病之后，该模型用于探索先前提出的反事实管理策略。新的推出日期预计为 1962 年末。我们表明，即使在疫情早期在国家层面对疾病管理进行了高度干预，对榆树数量的长期影响也很小。在布莱顿，当地一小片在最初疫情高峰期幸存下来的榆树已得到成功管理。然而，布莱顿和类似地区在周边地区再生和再感染后，每隔 15 至 20 年就会遭受该病的反复侵袭，在此期间需要更加强化的管理。
The arrival of a new species of the fungus which causes Dutch elm disease into Great Britain in the 1960s caused widespread elm death and continues to be problematic following elm regeneration. Attempts at managing the disease have been largely unsuccessful. Forty years after the outbreak, however, researchers continue to be interested in both the underlying biology of such a severe and dramatic disease event and in the policy lessons that can be drawn from it. We develop a spatial model at a 1 km(2) resolution. Following parameterization to replay the historical epidemic, the model is used to explore previously proposed counterfactual management strategies. A new introduction date of late 1962 is estimated. We show that, even had there been high intervention at a national level in terms of disease management early in the epidemic, there would have been little long-term effect on elm numbers. In Brighton, a local pocket of elm which survived the peak of the initial epidemic has been successfully managed. However, Brighton and similar locations are subject to repeated waves of the disease at a 15- to 20-year intervals following regeneration and reinfection of the surrounding areas, during which much more intensive management is required.