Transmission channels of business cycles synchronization in an enlarged EMU
Transmission channels of business cycles synchronization in an enlarged EMU
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扩大动车组经济周期同步传输通道
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发表时间：
2004
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通讯作者：
I. Traistaru
中科院分区：
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作者：
I. Traistaru
中欧国家加入欧洲联盟意味着，一旦达到马斯特里赫特名义上的趋同标准，就有可能加入欧元区。这引发了一个关于扩大欧元区的成本和收益的问题。特别是，扩大后的欧元区在结构性和周期性趋同方面的前景迄今鲜有人研究。中欧新欧盟国家(CE-EU-8)与欧元区现有成员国之间的商业周期同步程度如何？这些国家之间的商业周期同步是如何传递的？本文考察了1990-2003年间欧元区当前和未来成员国经济周期的同步化程度，并分析了作为主要传导渠道的经济结构和双边贸易强度的相似性。使用带通滤波的GDP数据，我发现与当前的欧元区成员国相比，CE-EU-8国家和欧元区成员国之间的商业周期相关性较低。在8国集团中，在所分析的期间内，匈牙利、波兰和斯洛文尼亚的商业周期与当前欧元区成员国的经济活动波动密切相关。计量经济学分析表明，经济结构相似性和双边贸易强度与经济周期的相关性呈显著正相关。这一结果对不同的国家对组和估计技术是稳健的。这些经验发现表明，在冲击特定国家的程度上，共同的货币政策可能会在欧元区产生不对称效应，而欧元区很早就扩大到了新的欧盟成员国。然而，这种政策含义需要两个条件：采取共同货币政策的成本首先取决于汇率可以在多大程度上被用作有效的减震器，其次取决于货币政策可以在多大程度上有效地稳定经济活动。此外，还发现了经济结构相似性、双边贸易强度和经济周期同步性之间的内生关系，这表明从长期来看，经济结构的趋同和贸易增长是可以预期的。如果采用欧元将做好充分准备，将给新的欧盟国家带来重大好处。
The accession of Central European countries to the European Union implies the possibility of euro area membership once the Maastricht nominal convergence criteria will be met. This raises the question about costs and benefits of an enlarged euro area. In particular, the prospects for structural and cyclical convergence in an enlarged euro area have been little investigated so far. How synchronized are business cycles between the Central European new EU countries (CE-EU- 8) and current euro area members? How is business cycles synchronization transmitted across these countries? This paper investigates the degree of business cycles synchronization between the current and future euro area member states over the period 1990-2003 and analyses the similarity of economic structures and bilateral trade intensity as main transmission channels. Using band-pass filtered GDP data, I find that business cycles between the CE-EU-8 countries and euro area members are less correlated in comparison to the current euro area members. In the group of the CE-EU-8 countries, over the analyzed period, business cycles in Hungary, Poland and Slovenia were closer correlated with the economic activity fluctuations in the current euro area members. The econometric analysis indicates that similarity of economic structures and bilateral trade intensity were positively and significantly associated with business cycles correlations. This result is robust to different groups of country pairs and estimation techniques. These empirical findings suggest that, to the extent shocks are country – specific, a common monetary policy might have asymmetric effects in an euro area extended early to the new EU members. This policy implication needs however two qualifications: the cost of adopting a common monetary policy depends first, on the extent to which the exchange rate can be used as an efficient shock absorber and second, on the extent to which monetary policy can be used effectively to stabilizing economic activity. Furthermore, the relationship between similarity of economic structures, bilateral trade intensity, on the one hand, and, business cycles synchronization, on the other hand, is found endogenous suggesting that, in the long term, convergence of economic structures and trade growth are expected. If the adoption of the euro will be well prepared it will bring significant benefits to the new EU countries.