Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models.
Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0005568
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发表时间：
2017-04
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Weikel DP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mordecai EA;Cohen JM;Evans MV;Gudapati P;Johnson LR;Lippi CA;Miazgowicz K;Murdock CC;Rohr JR;Ryan SJ;Savage V;Shocket MS;Stewart Ibarra A;Thomas MB;Weikel DP
最近寨卡病毒、登革热和基孔肯雅热的流行加剧了了解埃及伊蚊和Ae传播的季节性和地理范围的必要性。白纹蚊我们使用机械传播模型来预测寨卡病毒，基孔肯雅病毒和登革热传播的概率和幅度如何随平均温度变化，我们表明这些预测与人类病例数据很好地匹配。在所有三种病毒中，模型和人类病例数据都显示，传播发生在18-34°C之间，最大传播发生在26-29°C范围内。控制人口规模和两个社会经济因素，温度依赖性传播的基础上，我们的机制模型是一个重要的预测人类传播的发生和发病率。风险分布图表明，热带和亚热带地区适合于季节性或全年性的长期传播，但在温带地区，即使存在病媒，传播也限于每年最多三个月。这种短暂的传播窗口限制了疾病传入温带后发生大流行病的可能性。了解最近寨卡、登革热和基孔肯雅热流行的驱动因素是公共卫生的一个主要优先事项。温度可能起着重要的作用，因为它通过影响蚊子的发育、存活、繁殖和叮咬率以及蚊子获得和传播病毒的速率来影响蚊子的病毒传播。在这里，我们测量温度对这些病毒的两种最常见的蚊子媒介物种，埃及伊蚊和Ae传播的影响。白纹伊蚊我们将几个实验室实验的数据整合到温度依赖性传输的数学模型中，发现传输峰值在26-29°C，并且可以在18-34°C之间发生。将模型预测与最近在美洲观察到的登革热、基孔肯雅病和寨卡病毒病例进行统计比较，表明温度的重要作用，并支持模型预测。使用该模型，我们预测大多数热带和亚热带地区适合在一年中的许多或所有月份传播，但温带地区，如美国大部分地区，仅适合在夏季传播几个月（即使蚊子媒介存在）。
Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18–34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26–29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones. Understanding the drivers of recent Zika, dengue, and chikungunya epidemics is a major public health priority. Temperature may play an important role because it affects virus transmission by mosquitoes, through its effects on mosquito development, survival, reproduction, and biting rates as well as the rate at which mosquitoes acquire and transmit viruses. Here, we measure the impact of temperature on transmission by two of the most common mosquito vector species for these viruses, Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. We integrate data from several laboratory experiments into a mathematical model of temperature-dependent transmission, and find that transmission peaks at 26–29°C and can occur between 18–34°C. Statistically comparing model predictions with recent observed human cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika across the Americas suggests an important role for temperature, and supports model predictions. Using the model, we predict that most of the tropics and subtropics are suitable for transmission in many or all months of the year, but that temperate areas like most of the United States are only suitable for transmission for a few months during the summer (even if the mosquito vector is present).