A Modeling Framework for the Diffusion of Green Technologies
A Modeling Framework for the Diffusion of Green Technologies
复制标题
绿色技术扩散的建模框架
DOI：
10.1142/9789812790545_0008
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Masui
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mitsutaka Mutsumoto;S. Kondoh;J. Fujimoto;K. Masui
本文提出了一个基于多主体模型的环境技术创新环境措施效果分析的建模框架。在本文件中，我们首先概述现有的方法，并澄清我们在制定拟议框架时的目标。以前的主要方法是1）经济理性模型和2）逻辑曲线模型。我们通过应用多智能体模型，并在多智能体框架中设置技术进步参数和消费者偏好参数来增强逻辑斯谛曲线模型。此外，作为一个应用的例子，我们估计的混合动力电动汽车（HV）在日本的扩散，直到2030年和相应的影响，二氧化碳排放水平。
AbstractWe propose a modeling framework based on multi-agent models for analyzing the effects of environmental measures that depend on environmental technological innovations. In the present paper, we first outline existing approaches and clarify our objective in formulating the proposed framework. Previous major approaches have been 1) economic rationalistic models and 2) logistic curve models. We augmented logistic curve models by applying multi-agent models and setting the parameters of technological advancement and parameters of consumer preferences in the multi-agent framework. In addition, as an example of application of the proposed framework, we estimate the diffusion of hybrid electric vehicles (HV) in Japan until 2030 and the corresponding effect on CO2 emission levels.