Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking in CMIP5 and Future Changes in the Australia‐New Zealand Sector
Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking in CMIP5 and Future Changes in the Australia‐New Zealand Sector
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CMIP5 中的南半球大气阻塞和澳大利亚-新西兰部门的未来变化
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
T. Woollings
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Patterson;T. Bracegirdle;T. Woollings
许多大气环流模式未能捕捉到观测到的北方半球大气阻塞事件的频率;然而，很少有研究检查了南半球的模式，而那些研究通常只基于少数几个模式。为了全面了解当前一代耦合大气环流模式在南半球的表现以及增强温室气体强迫下阻塞频率的变化，我们研究了耦合模式相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5）的23个模型的输出。我们发现，模型有不同的偏见，在冬季，当阻塞发生率最高，虽然模型低估了阻塞频率在澳大利亚南部的夏季。我们发现，随着未来的人为强迫，模型通常会减少阻塞频率，特别是在澳大利亚-新西兰地区，到21世纪世纪末，冬季阻塞天数减少了约三分之一。
Many general circulation models fail to capture the observed frequency of atmospheric blocking events in the Northern Hemisphere; however, few studies have examined models in the Southern Hemisphere and those studies that have, have often been based on only a few models. To provide a comprehensive view of how the current generation of coupled general circulation models performs in the Southern Hemisphere and how blocking frequency changes under enhanced greenhouse gas forcing, we examine the output of 23 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that models have differing biases during winter, when blocking occurrence is highest, though models underestimate blocking frequency south of Australia during summer. We show that models generally have a reduction in blocking frequency with future anthropogenic forcing, particularly in the Australia‐New Zealand sector with the number of winter blocked days reduced by about one third by the end of the 21st century.
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影响因子：
3.1
作者：
P. Berrisford;B. Hoskins;E. Tyrlis
通讯作者：
P. Berrisford;B. Hoskins;E. Tyrlis
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Adam A. Scaife;T. Woollings;J. Knight;G. Martin;T. Hinton
通讯作者：
Adam A. Scaife;T. Woollings;J. Knight;G. Martin;T. Hinton
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
de Vries, Hylke;Woollings, Tim;Hazeleger, Wilco
通讯作者：
Hazeleger, Wilco
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Sillmann, Jana;Croci-Maspoli, Mischa;Katz, Richard W.
通讯作者：
Katz, Richard W.
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Bracegirdle, Thomas J.;Shuckburgh, Emily;Wilcox, Laura J.
通讯作者：
Wilcox, Laura J.