Trade and Income -- Exploiting Time Series in Geography
Trade and Income -- Exploiting Time Series in Geography
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1371022
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发表时间：
2009-03
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
James D. Feyrer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
James D. Feyrer
在贸易和收入之间建立强有力的因果关系一直很困难。Frankel和Romer（1999）使用地理工具来确定贸易对收入的积极影响。Rodriguez和Rodrik（2000年）表明，这些结果对于控制省略的变量（如到赤道的距离或机构）并不稳健。本文通过生成时变地理仪器解决了遗漏变量的问题。飞机技术的改进使航空运输的世界贸易量随着时间的推移而增加。与海上航线相比，空中航线相对较短的国家从这一技术变化中受益更多。这种异质性可用于生成随时间变化的基于地理的贸易工具。时间序列变化允许控制国家固定效应，消除来自时间不变变量的偏差，例如与赤道的距离或历史确定的机构。贸易对收入有显著影响，弹性约为一半。预测贸易增长的差异可以解释1960年至1995年之间跨国收入增长变化的大约17%。
Establishing a robust causal relationship between trade and income has been difficult. Frankel and Romer (1999) use a geographic instrument to identify a positive effect of trade on income. Rodriguez and Rodrik (2000) show that these results are not robust to controlling for omitted variables such as distance to the equator or institutions. This paper solves the omitted variable problem by generating a time varying geographic instrument. Improvements in aircraft technology have caused the quantity of world trade carried by air to increase over time. Country pairs with relatively short air routes compared to sea routes benefit more from this change in technology. This heterogeneity can be used to generate a geography based instrument for trade that varies over time. The time series variation allows for controls for country fixed effects, eliminating the bias from time invariant variables such as distance from the equator or historically determined institutions. Trade has a significant effect on income with an elasticity of roughly one half. Differences in predicted trade growth can explain roughly 17 percent of the variation in cross country income growth between 1960 and 1995.