Economic and ecological consequences of four European land use scenarios
Economic and ecological consequences of four European land use scenarios
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DOI：
10.1016/j.landusepol.2006.01.004
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发表时间：
2007-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
7.1
通讯作者：
van Rheenen, T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eickhout, B.;van Meijl, H.;van Rheenen, T.
全球化对贸易、生产和土地利用的影响是多哈发展回合的关键。本文在四种不同情景的基础上，研究了农业贸易、生产、土地利用变化和环境后果之间的复杂相互作用。在这些情景中，考虑了从贸易自由化到维持的区域贸易区块的主要不确定性。虽然经济增长在自由化情景中是显而易见的，但我们也发现，气候和营养对全球农业实践的可持续性的环境威胁给未来的粮食生产带来了新的挑战。因为大多数环境威胁将发生在热带地区，那里的大部分。预计人口以及食品和饲料需求的增加，可能会给欧洲农产品市场带来间接压力。未来几十年，欧洲农业预计将略有下降，特别是在自由化世界。对生物燃料、碳种植园和全球粮食市场土地的新需求，将防止欧洲农业部门被淘汰。此外，目前的欧盟政策已经导致农民不那么容易受到额外的自由化政策的影响。因此，我们得出结论，全球环境对欧洲未来的土地使用非常重要，特别是在环境政策被忽视的未来。因此，我们得出结论，环境和贸易协定必须充分整合或协调，以确保它们共同努力改善环境，实现自由贸易的好处。(C)2006爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
The impact of globalization on trade, production and land use is key to the Doha development round. This paper deals with the complex interaction between agricultural trade, production, land-use change and environmental consequences on the basis of four different scenarios. In these scenarios, major uncertainties from trade liberalization to maintained regional trade blocks are considered. Although economic growth is apparent in liberalizing scenarios, we also found that environmental threats of climate and nutrients to the sustainability of the global agricultural practices pose new, challenges to future-food production. Since most of the environmental threats will be experienced in tropical regions where most of. the increase in population and food and feed demand is expected, an indirect pressure on the European agricultural market is likely. For the coming decades European agriculture is expected to decrease slightly, especially in liberalizing worlds. New demand for land for biofuels, carbon plantations and the global food market, will prevent the European agricultural sector from being eliminated. Moreover, current EU policies already result in less vulnerable farmers to additional liberalizing policies. Therefore, we conclude the global context is important for future European land use, especially in futures where environmental policies are ignored. Therefore, we conclude that environmental and trade agreements must be sufficiently integrated or coordinated, to assure they work together to improve the environment and attain the benefits of free trade. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All right reserved.