Data derived NARMAX Dst model
Data derived NARMAX Dst model
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DOI：
10.5194/angeo-29-965-2011
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发表时间：
2011-01-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Amariutei, O. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boynton, R. J.;Balikhin, M. A.;Amariutei, O. A.
使用Narmax OLS-ERR方法来确定DST索引动力学的数学模型。 Narmax OLS-ERR算法在系统标识领域广泛使用，能够使用输入和输出数据来识别一类广泛的非线性系统的数学模型。从分析或基于数据的方法得出的太阳风磁圈耦合函数被用作此类模型的输入，输出是地磁指数。新推导的耦合函数P（1/2）V（4/3）B（T）Sin（6）（Theta/2）已被实现为对DST动力学建模的输入。结果表明，确定的模型具有很好的预测能力，尤其是在地磁风暴中。
The NARMAX OLS-ERR methodology is applied to identify a mathematical model for the dynamics of the Dst index. The NARMAX OLS-ERR algorithm, which is widely used in the field of system identification, is able to identify a mathematical model for a wide class of non-linear systems using input and output data. Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling functions, derived from analytical or data based methods, are employed as the inputs to such models and the outputs are geomagnetic indices. The newly deduced coupling function, p(1/2)V(4/3)B(T)sin(6)(theta/2), has been implemented as an input to model the Dst dynamics. It was shown that the identified model has a very good forecasting ability, especially with the geomagnetic storms.