Fall-risk screening test: A prospective study on predictors for falls in community-dwelling elderly
Fall-risk screening test: A prospective study on predictors for falls in community-dwelling elderly
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DOI：
10.1016/s0895-4356(01)00349-3
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发表时间：
2001-08-01
影响因子：
7.2
通讯作者：
Lips, P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tromp, AM;Pluijm, SMF;Lips, P
这项大型前瞻性队列研究旨在构建老年人跌倒风险模型。这项研究的重点在于任何跌倒和反复跌倒的容易测量的预测指标。采用“跌倒日历”对1285名65岁及以上的社区老年人进行了为期1年的跌倒发生率跟踪调查。身体、认知、情绪和社会功能在跌倒登记之前被研究作为跌倒风险的潜在预测因素。以前跌倒、视力障碍、尿失禁和使用苯二氮卓类药物是任何跌倒的最强预测因子（曲线下面积[AUC] = 0.65），而以前跌倒、视力障碍、尿失禁和功能限制被证明是反复跌倒的最强预测因子（AUC = 0.71）。在随后的筛查得分中，复发下降的概率从4.7%（95%可信区间[CI]: 4.0-5.4%）到46.8% （95% CI: 43.0-50.6%）不等。我们的研究提供了一种基于四个容易测量的预测指标的跌倒风险筛查测试，可用于社区居住老年人的跌倒风险分层。(C) 2001爱思唯尔科学公司版权所有。
This large prospective cohort study was undertaken to construct a fall-risk model for elderly. The emphasis of the study rests on easily measurable predictors for any falls and recurrent falls. The occurrence of falls among 1285 community-dwelling elderly aged 65 years and over was followed during 1 year by means of a "fall calendar." Physical, cognitive, emotional and social functioning preceding the registration of falls were studied as potential predictors of fall-risk. Previous falls, visual impairment, urinary incontinence and use of benzodiazepines were the strongest predictors identified in the risk profile model for any falls (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.65), whereas previous falls, visual impairment, urinary incontinence and functional limitations: proved to be the strongest predictors in the model for recurrent falls (AUC = 0.71). The probability of recurrent falls for subsequent scores of the screening lest ranged from 4.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 4.0-5.4%) to 46.8% (95% CI: 43.0-50.6%). Our study provides: a fall-risk screening test based on four easily measurable predictors that can be used for fall-risk stratification in community-dwelling elderly. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.