A Cumulative Prospect Theory Approach to Passengers Behavior Modeling: Waiting Time Paradox Revisited
A Cumulative Prospect Theory Approach to Passengers Behavior Modeling: Waiting Time Paradox Revisited
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DOI：
10.1080/15472450490523856
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发表时间：
2004-10
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
E. Avineri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Avineri
一般的旅行选择模型都是基于旅行者的行为是理性的假设。然而，使用规范模型来描述个人选择受到了行为科学家的批评，最近也受到了交通研究人员的批评。本文对乘客的有限理性行为进行了研究。具体来说，我们专注于决策过程中的个人乘客谁选择一条公交线路。通过考察被试对公交线路的偏好，研究了信息格式对个体选择的影响。该文件提出了两种不同格式的替代公交线路信息，公交车的间隔时间，并通过等待时间。研究结果表明，当受试者被提供有关公交车车头时距间隔的信息时，存在大小偏差抽样（称为等待时间悖论）。在累积前景理论的框架下，通过对主体偏好的制定和解释，可以推导出乘客参考点的值。结果发现，这样一个参考点是远远低于经验的等待时间报告的主题。更好地了解乘客的行为可能会改善公共交通时刻表和先进的旅行者信息系统（ATIS）的设计。
Common travel-choice models are based on the assumption that travelers' behavior is rational. However, using normative models to describe individual choice was criticized by behavioral scientists, and recently also by transportation researchers. In this paper, aspects of passengers' bounded-rationality behavior are studied. Specifically, we focus on the decision-making process of the individual passenger who has to select a bus line. The effect of information format on individual choice is studied by the examination of subjects' preferences of bus lines. Questionnaires presented two different formats of alternative bus lines information, buses' headway intervals, and by waiting time. The results show evidence to size-biased sampling (known as the waiting time paradox) when subjects are provided with information about buses' headway intervals. By formulation and interpretation of subjects' preferences with the framework of Cumulative Prospect Theory, the value of passengers' reference point may be derived. It was found that such a reference point is much lower than the experienced waiting times reported by subjects. This better understanding of passengers' behavior may improve the design of public transportation timetables and advanced travelers information systems (ATIS).