Assessing the accuracy of OSHA's projections of the benefits of new safety standards.
Assessing the accuracy of OSHA's projections of the benefits of new safety standards.
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评估 OSHA 对新安全标准的好处预测的准确性。
DOI：
10.1002/ajim.10362
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发表时间：
2004
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Mendeloff,John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Seong,SiKyung;Mendeloff,John
背景自1987年以来，职业安全与健康管理局（OSHA）发布了安全和健康标准，预计新的安全标准每年将防止2,600多人死亡。对于自1990年以来发布的六个安全标准，我们比较OSHA的预测的影响，完全符合实际的死亡率的变化，并检查的原因differentiation.MethodsWe审查的qualibles OSHA标准和监管影响分析（RIA）为他们准备，以确定基线和预防因素，该机构用于项目的死亡人数，将被阻止。我们使用了三个数据源来跟踪相关类别的死亡：致命职业伤害（CFOI）的普查，国家创伤性职业死亡计划，和OSHA的死亡/灾难investigations.ResultsFor所有六个标准，OSHA似乎高估了防止死亡的人数。CFOI的可用性导致更好的估计的死亡基线，但预防因素总是高估，特别是强调training.ConclusionsOSHA的标准需要制定更好的方法来预测伤害的影响。需要研究来帮助OSHA预测行为要求的影响（例如，培训），了解实际工作实践和伤害结果。对于非致命性损伤，将需要新的数据收集方法。Am. J. Ind. Med. 45：313-328，2004.© 2004 Wiley利斯公司
BackgroundIn the preambles to the safety and health standards that it has issued since 1987, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) projected that new safety standards would prevent over 2,600 death each year. For six safety standards issued since 1990, we compare OSHA's projections of the impact of full compliance on fatalities with actual fatality changes and examine the reasons for the differences.MethodsWe reviewed the preambles to OSHA standards and the Regulatory Impact Analyses (RIAs) prepared for them to identify the baseline and the prevention factor that the agency used to project the number of deaths that would be prevented. We used three data sources to track the relevant categories of fatalities: the Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries (CFOI), the National Traumatic Occupational Fatality program, and OSHAs Fatality/Catastrophe investigations.ResultsFor all six standards, OSHA appeared to overestimate the number of deaths prevented. The availability of CFOI led to better estimates of the fatality baseline, but the prevention factor was always overestimated, especially for standards which emphasized training.ConclusionsOSHA needs to develop better methods for projecting injury impacts. Research is needed to help OSHA predict the effects of behavioral requirements (e.g., training) on actual work practices and injury outcomes. For non‐fatal injuries, new methods of data collection will be required. Am. J. Ind. Med. 45:313–328, 2004. © 2004 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.