Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate
Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-014-1153-9
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发表时间：
2014-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Otto, Friederike E. L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sippel, Sebastian;Otto, Friederike E. L.
近年来，世界上一些地区出现了破纪录的热浪、干旱和洪水，这就产生了一个问题，即水文气象极端天气事件的危害是否发生了变化，以及在多大程度上发生了变化，这些变化是否可以归因于特定的原因。概率事件归因的方法允许评估特定类型极端事件发生概率的这种潜在变化。我们发现，这样的概率评估不仅提供了信息，水文气象事件的危害不断变化，但也允许有关水文气象变量的多元组合的声明。因此，如果使用不同的适当的多元代理，归因研究可以具体针对特定部门的相关影响。我们通过在weather@home项目中的大型气候模拟集合中使用温度，降水和湿度的组合来展示我们的方法，以获得与影响相关的数量，例如季节性水平衡和对人体施加的热应力。最后，我们估计了这些事件在东南欧的危险概率，该地区最近经历了严重的夏季干燥（2012年）与多个热浪相结合。
With record breaking heat waves, dryness, and floods in several parts of the world in recent years the question arises whether and to what extent the hazard of hydrometeorological extreme weather events has changed, and if changes can be attributed to specific causes. The methodology of probabilistic event attribution allows to evaluate such potential changes in the occurence probabilities of particular types of extreme events. We show that such a probabilistic assessment not only provides information on changing hazards in hydrometerological events but also permits statements about multivariate combinations of hydrometeorological variables. Hence attribution studies could be targeted specifically towards relevant impacts in particular sectors, if different suitable multivariate proxies are used. We demonstrate our methodology by using combinations of temperature, precipitation and humidity in the large ensemble of climate simulations within the weather@home project in order to derive impact-relevant quantities such as a seasonal water balance and heat stress imposed on the human body. Finally, we estimate the hazard probabilities of those events in South-East Europe, a region that has recently experienced severe summer dryness (2012) in combination with multiple heat waves.