Mechanics and Historical Evolution of Sea Level Blowouts in New York Harbor
Mechanics and Historical Evolution of Sea Level Blowouts in New York Harbor
复制标题
纽约港海平面井喷的机制和历史演变
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
J. Booth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Gurumurthy;P. Orton;S. Talke;N. Georgas;J. Booth
以负风暴潮或极低水位（ELW）来衡量，由风引起的海平面井喷会产生公共安全危害并造成经济成本（例如航运成本）。本文采用区域水动力数值模型，研究了历史环境变化和风强迫的时间尺度、方向和强度对纽约港（NYH）负、正风暴潮事件的影响。环境敏感性试验表明，航道疏浚是影响井喷的重要因素，而改变冰层覆盖和去除其他粗糙度因素则不重要。自1860年以来连续测量的水位记录显示出较小的负浪涌幅度（测量值减去预测水位）的趋势，但在去除海平面趋势后，没有显示出ELW幅度的显著变化。模型结果表明，在较深的疏浚现代系统中，较小的负浪涌发生是由于潮汐-浪涌相互作用的减少，主要是通过预测潮汐的相移减少。风暴潮对风向的敏感性在空间上呈现出明显的变化趋势，在NYH附近，远风效应主导局地风效应。汇聚的海岸线放大了正浪涌，也放大了负浪涌，我们称之为逆海岸漏斗效应。
Wind-induced sea level blowouts, measured as negative storm surge or extreme low water (ELW), produce public safety hazards and impose economic costs (e.g., to shipping). In this paper, we use a regional hydrodynamic numerical model to test the effect of historical environmental change and the time scale, direction, and magnitude of wind forcing on negative and positive surge events in the New York Harbor (NYH). Environmental sensitivity experiments show that dredging of shipping channels is an important factor affecting blowouts while changing ice cover and removal of other roughness elements are unimportant in NYH. Continuously measured water level records since 1860 show a trend towards smaller negative surge magnitudes (measured minus predicted water level) but do not show a significant change to ELW magnitudes after removing the sea-level trend. Model results suggest that the smaller negative surges occur in the deeper, dredged modern system due to a reduced tide-surge interaction, primarily through a reduced phase shift in the predicted tide. The sensitivity of surge to wind direction changes spatially with remote wind effects dominating local wind effects near NYH. Convergent coastlines that amplify positive surges also amplify negative surges, a process we term inverse coastal funneling.