Trafficking Networks and the Mexican Drug War
Trafficking Networks and the Mexican Drug War
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DOI：
10.1257/aer.20121637
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发表时间：
2015-06-01
影响因子：
10.7
通讯作者：
Dell, Melissa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dell, Melissa
自2007年以来，墨西哥与毒品贸易有关的暴力事件急剧升级，近年来，墨西哥保守的PAN党带头开展了大规模打击贩运活动。本研究探讨了墨西哥对毒品贸易的政策的直接和溢出效应。回归不连续估计表明，与毒品有关的暴力大幅增加后，PAN市长的密切选举。经验证据表明，暴力反映了敌对的贩运者在打击削弱了现任罪犯之后企图篡夺领土。此外，该研究使用了一个贩运路线的网络模型，表明PAN的胜利转移了毒品贩运，增加了沿着替代毒品路线的暴力。(JEL D72、D85、K42、O17、Z13）
Drug trade-related violence has escalated dramatically in Mexico since 2007, and recent years have also witnessed large-scale efforts to combat trafficking, spearheaded by Mexico's conservative PAN party. This study examines the direct and spillover effects of Mexican policy toward the drug trade. Regression discontinuity estimates show that drug-related violence increases substantially after close elections of PAN mayors. Empirical evidence suggests that the violence reflects rival traffickers' attempts to usurp territories after crackdowns have weakened incumbent criminals. Moreover, the study uses a network model of trafficking routes to show that PAN victories divert drug traffic, increasing violence along alternative drug routes. (JEL D72, D85, K42, O17, Z13)