The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century
The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century
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DOI：
10.1038/s43247-021-00289-2
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发表时间：
2021-10-15
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lowry, Daniel P.;Krapp, Mario;Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alanna
根据冰盖模拟和一项基于仿真器的分析，在下一个世纪，南极冰盖在高排放情景下对海平面的贡献与低排放情景下的贡献没有区别，但其长期贡献取决于本世纪的变暖。在全球海平面预算的所有组成部分中，南极冰盖未来的贡献在海平面上升预测中是最不确定的。动态冰盖模型模拟表明，在各种温室气体排放情景下，预计南极冰盖对海平面的贡献有相当大的重叠，而情景依赖性出现的时间尺度尚不清楚。与历史上受约束的冰盖模拟和统计模拟器，我们证明了南极冰盖海平面贡献的高排放签名将不会明确地出现从广泛的潜在范围内的低排放海平面预测超过100年，由于目前的限制，我们在冰流和滑动的理解。然而，研究结果也表明，21世纪发生的全球总变暖控制着由此产生的长期南极冰盖海平面承诺，在随后的几个世纪中，最高和最低排放情景之间存在数米的差异。
The Antarctic Ice Sheet's sea-level contribution in a high-emissions scenario is indistinguishable from that in a low-emissions scenario for the next century, but its long-term contribution depends on warming this century, according to ice sheet simulations and an emulator-based analysis.Of all the components of the global sea-level budget, the future contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the most uncertain in sea-level rise projections. Dynamic ice sheet model simulations show considerable overlap in the projected Antarctic Ice Sheet sea-level contribution under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and the timescale at which scenario dependence will emerge is unclear. With historically constrained ice sheet simulations and a statistical emulator, we demonstrate that a high-emissions signature of the Antarctic Ice Sheet sea-level contribution will not unambiguously emerge from the wide potential range of low-emission sea-level projections for over 100 years due to current limitations in our understanding in ice flow and sliding. However, the results also indicate that the total global warming that occurs over the 21st century controls the resulting long-term Antarctic Ice Sheet sea-level commitment, with multi-meter differences between the highest and lowest emissions scenarios in subsequent centuries.