Setting ecological expectations for adaptive management of marine protected areas
Setting ecological expectations for adaptive management of marine protected areas
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DOI：
10.1111/1365-2664.13463
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发表时间：
2019-07-16
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Botsford, Louis W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nickols, Kerry J.;White, J. Wilson;Botsford, Louis W.
海洋保护区（MPA）正在全球范围内实施，但很少有管理人员对以前捕捞的种群对MPA实施的反应做出具体预测的情况。需要进行这样的预测，以评估海洋保护区是否按预期工作，如果不是，为什么。这种评估是必要的，以执行适应性管理，确定是否以及何时调整管理可能是必要的，以实现MPA目标。利用监测数据和种群模型，我们量化了目标物种对MPA实施的预期反应，并将其与监测数据进行了比较。该模型需要两个因素来解释观察到的反应在MPA：（a）前MPA收获率，这可能会在当地的空间尺度上有所不同，和（B）招募变异之前和之后MPA成立。在我们的研究系统中，MPA建立前的低招募年数导致偏离预期的平衡人群规模分布，并为缓解可检测性引入了额外的时滞。合成与应用。我们结合监测数据和人口模型，以显示如何（a）收获率之前，海洋保护区（MPA）的实施，（B）招募的变化，和（c）初始人口规模结构确定是否响应MPA建立是可检测的。MPA前收获率在MPA响应可检测性中起着很大的作用，证明了测量这一鲜为人知的参数的重要性。虽然一个直观的期望是响应检测依赖于招聘变异性和MPA建立后的人口轨迹的随机性，我们解决了被忽视的作用，招聘变异性MPA建立之前，这改变了MPA建立时的规模结构。这些因素为MPA从业人员提供了MPA是否可能导致目标物种反应的原因。我们的整体方法为适应性管理的关键步骤提供了一个框架。
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are being implemented worldwide, yet there are few cases where managers make specific predictions of the response of previously harvested populations to MPA implementation. Such predictions are needed to evaluate whether MPAs are working as expected, and if not, why. This evaluation is necessary to perform adaptive management, identifying whether and when adjustments to management might be necessary to achieve MPA goals. Using monitoring data and population models, we quantified expected responses of targeted species to MPA implementation and compared them to monitoring data. The model required two factors to explain observed responses in MPAs: (a) pre-MPA harvest rates, which can vary at local spatial scales, and (b) recruitment variability before and after MPA establishment. Low recruitment years before MPA establishment in our study system drove deviations from expected equilibrium population size distributions and introduced an additional time lag to response detectability. Synthesis and applications. We combined monitoring data and population models to show how (a) harvest rates prior to Marine Protected Area (MPA) implementation, (b) variability in recruitment, and (c) initial population size structure determine whether a response to MPA establishment is detectable. Pre-MPA harvest rates across MPAs plays a large role in MPA response detectability, demonstrating the importance of measuring this poorly known parameter. While an intuitive expectation is for response detectability to depend on recruitment variability and stochasticity in population trajectories after MPA establishment, we address the overlooked role of recruitment variability before MPA establishment, which alters the size structure at the time of MPA establishment. These factors provide MPA practitioners with reasons whether or not MPAs may lead to responses of targeted species. Our overall approach provides a framework for a critical step of adaptive management.