Has the risk of a 1976 north-west European summer drought and heatwave event increased since the 1970s because of climate change?
Has the risk of a 1976 north-west European summer drought and heatwave event increased since the 1970s because of climate change?
复制标题
自 20 世纪 70 年代以来，由于气候变化，1976 年西北欧夏季干旱和热浪事件的风险是否有所增加？
DOI：
10.1002/qj.4172
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Baker L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baker L
1976年夏天，欧洲西北部经历了一场异常的热浪和干旱，影响了农业和公共供水。这项研究旨在评估自1976年以来，由于气候变化，该事件在当今气候中发生变化的可能性。分析的重点是英格兰和威尔士地区，这是特别严重的影响。分析表明，导致极端夏季的三个关键因素是：冬春前期干旱、夏季干旱和夏季炎热。根据事件归因的原则，使用三种方法来评估事件风险的变化：一种使用观测数据，第二种使用CMIP 5耦合气候模式，第三种使用HadGEM 3 ‐A大气模拟。这是该方法首次用于评估历史极端事件的风险自最初发生以来如何变化。三种方法的结果定性一致。从20世纪70年代到当今气候，夏季至少与1976年一样热的可能性显着增加（基于三种相应方法估计的风险比为11（5-95%置信区间（CI）[7，14]）、9（CI [4，28]）和19（CI [5，25]））。相比之下，冬春极端干旱和夏季极端干旱的概率没有显著变化，但冬春极端干旱之后出现极端炎热夏季的概率和夏季极端炎热和干旱的概率都在20世纪70年代和现在之间显著增加（估计风险比分别为5至79和3至39）。因此，水资源系统应该足够强大，以科普更频繁出现的1976年那样极端的夏季。
In the summer of 1976, north‐west Europe experienced an exceptional heatwave and drought, which impacted agriculture and public water supply. This study aims to assess how the likelihood of the event in the present‐day climate has changed since 1976 because of climate change. The analysis focuses on the England and Wales region, which was particularly badly impacted. Three key factors contributing to the extreme summer were identified: the dry preceding winter–spring period, the dry summer and the hot summer. Following the principles of event attribution, three methods are used to evaluate the change in event risk: one using observational data, a second using CMIP5 coupled climate models and a third using HadGEM3‐A atmosphere‐only simulations. This is the first time that this method has been used to evaluate how the risk of a historical extreme event has changed since it originally occurred. The results from the three methods agree qualitatively. The probability of a summer at least as hot as 1976 has increased significantly between the 1970s and the present‐day climate (estimated risk ratios 11 (5–95% confidence interval (CI) [7,14]), 9 (CI [4,28]) and 19 (CI [5,25]) based on the three respective methods). In contrast, no significant change in the probability of an extreme dry winter–spring or an extreme dry summer was found. However, the joint probability of an extreme dry winter–spring followed by an extreme hot summer and the probability of an extreme hot and dry summer have both increased significantly between the 1970s and the present day (estimated risk ratios between 5 and 79, and between 3 and 39, respectively). Water resource systems should therefore be robust enough to cope with more frequent occurrences of summers as extreme as 1976.