Stranded Wealth: Rethinking the Politics of Oil in an Age of Abundance
Stranded Wealth: Rethinking the Politics of Oil in an Age of Abundance
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3291655
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发表时间：
2018-11
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Thijs Van de Graaf;M. Bradshaw
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Thijs Van de Graaf;M. Bradshaw
即使油价已经从2014年的暴跌中恢复过来，本文认为，石油行业也不太可能回到之前的现状。技术和市场的两个深刻转变正在戏剧性地改变石油行业的长期前景。短期内，传统生产商将感受到页岩革命带来的持续压力。页岩革命是一种颠覆性技术，改变了石油供应的成本曲线和弹性。中期而言，由于创新和不断变化的消费者偏好，该行业必须面对结构性放缓和最终需求见顶的局面，这在一定程度上与对气候变化的担忧有关。总而言之，这些转变反映了一种新的能源秩序，石油不再是一种可耗尽的资源，新的交易模式出现，油价在长期下跌趋势中表现出更大的短期波动性。这些新的游戏规则迫使我们重新考虑石油国际政治经济学的一些理论和概念。我们注意到这些市场变化带来的三个关键政治影响：(1)主要产油国面临经济和政治动荡；(2)石油输出国组织(OPEC)无法通过减产长期影响石油价格；(3)权力在国际体系中重新分配。
Even if oil prices have recovered from their plunge in 2014, this article argues that the oil industry is unlikely to return to the status quo ex ante. Two profound shifts in technology and markets are dramatically changing the longer-term outlook for the oil industry. In the short term, traditional producers will feel persistent pressure from the shale revolution, a disruptive technology that has altered the cost curve and elasticity of oil supply. In the medium term, the industry must confront a structural slowdown and eventual peak in demand owing to innovation and evolving consumer preferences, related in part to concerns over climate change. Together, these shifts reflect a new energy order in which oil is no longer an exhaustible resource, new trading patterns emerge, and oil prices exhibit greater short-term volatility amid a long-term declining trend. These new rules of the game force us to reconsider some of the theories and concepts of the international political economy of oil. We flag three key political effects from these market shifts: (1) key oil-producing states face economic and political turmoil; (2) the Organization of the Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC) cannot influence the price of oil in the long term by cutting output; and (3) power is redistributed in the international system.