Duelling timescales of host movement and disease recovery determine invasion of disease in structured populations
Duelling timescales of host movement and disease recovery determine invasion of disease in structured populations
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00760.x
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发表时间：
2005-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Getz, WM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cross, PC;Lloyd-Smith, JO;Getz, WM
一种疾病的流行潜力传统上是用基本繁殖数R-0来评估的。然而，在具有社会或空间结构的人群中，慢性疾病比具有相同R-0的急性疾病更有可能入侵，因为它在每个群体中持续时间更长，并且允许更多的宿主在群体之间移动。急性疾病“感知”到更有结构的宿主种群，在分析这些疾病时考虑宿主种群结构更为重要。大流行的可能性并非独立于宿主或疾病的特征，而是由宿主移动和疾病恢复时间尺度的相互作用引起的。R-*统计量，相当于R-0的群体水平，比个体水平的R-0更好地指示了结构群体中的疾病侵袭。
The epidemic potential of a disease is traditionally assessed using the basic reproductive number, R-0. However, in populations with social or spatial structure a chronic disease is more likely to invade than an acute disease with the same R-0, because it persists longer within each group and allows for more host movement between groups. Acute diseases 'perceive' a more structured host population, and it is more important to consider host population structure in analyses of these diseases. The probability of a pandemic does not arise independently from characteristics of either the host or disease, but rather from the interaction of host movement and disease recovery timescales. The R-* statistic, a group-level equivalent of R-0, is a better indicator of disease invasion in structured populations than the individual-level R-0.