Factors influencing the propensity to cycle to work
Factors influencing the propensity to cycle to work
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tra.2006.09.011
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发表时间：
2007-05-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Page, Matthew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wardman, Mark;Tight, Miles;Page, Matthew
本文描述了一种用于出行的模式选择模型的发展，并特别强调了骑自行车的倾向。该模型结合了显性偏好(RP)和声明偏好(SP)数据，形成了一个非常大的、全面的模型。来自国家旅行调查的RP数据与一项特别委托的RP调查相结合。此外，还进行了多项SP调查，以考察不同类型的中途和行程终点自行车设施以及鼓励骑自行车的财政措施的影响。该模型被用来预测城市通勤比例随着时间的推移的趋势，并预测不同鼓励骑自行车的措施的影响。据预测，在沿途的自行车设施中，完全隔离的自行车道的影响最大，但即使是普遍提供这类设施的不可行方案，也只会导致骑自行车的次数增加55%，汽车通勤的次数略有减少。研究发现，骑自行车上班的报酬非常有效，每天2英镑的报酬几乎是骑自行车水平的两倍。最有效的政策将结合改善沿途设施、每天骑自行车上班的费用和全面的旅行终点设施，这也将对石油汽车通勤产生重大影响。(C)2006爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
This paper describes the development of a mode choice model for the journey to work with special emphasis on the propensity to cycle. The model combines Revealed Preference (RP) and Stated Preference (SP) data to form a very large and comprehensive model. RP data from the National Travel Survey was combined with a specially commissioned RP survey. A number of SP surveys were also undertaken to examine the effects of different types of en-route and trip end cycle facilities and financial measures to encourage cycling.The development of the model is described in detail. The model was used to forecast trends in urban commuting shares over time and to predict the impacts of different measures to encourage cycling. Of the en-route cycle facilities, a completely segregated cycleway was forecast to have the greatest impact, but even the unfeasible scenario of universal provision of such facilities would only result in a 55% increase in cycling and a slight reduction in car commuting. Payments for cycling to work were found to be highly effective with a 2 pound daily payment almost doubling the level of cycling. The most effective policy would combine improvements in en-route facilities, a daily payment to cycle to work and comprehensive trip end facilities and this would also have a significant impact oil car commuting. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.