Parameter Evaluation in Motion Estimation for Forecasting Multiple Photovoltaic Power Generation
Parameter Evaluation in Motion Estimation for Forecasting Multiple Photovoltaic Power Generation
复制标题
DOI：
10.3390/en15082855
复制
发表时间：
2022-04
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Taiki Kure;H. Tsuchiya;Yusuke Kameda;Hiroki Yamamoto;Daisuke Kodaira;J. Kondoh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Taiki Kure;H. Tsuchiya;Yusuke Kameda;Hiroki Yamamoto;Daisuke Kodaira;J. Kondoh
网格连接光伏（PV）动力系统的功率产生能力正在增加。由于电力市场参与者和公用事业运营商需要进行电力系统的稳定运行，因此已经提出了几种方法，因此使用了几种方法，使用了多种方法，使用了多种方法。先前使用运动估计，先前针对多个PV系统提出了一种短期（提前30分钟）的预测方法。该方法通过估计分布式PV电源系统的两个地理图像之间的运动来预测PV发电的短时间。在这种方法中，重要的是，该参数与所得运动矢量场的平滑度相关联并影响预测的准确性。这项研究的重点是参数，并评估了更改此参数对预测准确性的影响。在随着急剧功率输出变化的时期，对101个PV系统进行了预测。结果表明，最佳参数所提出的方法的绝对平均误差为10.3％，而持久性预测方法的绝对平均误差为23.7％。因此，当PV输出在短时间内发生急剧变化时，提出的方法在预测期内有效。
The power-generation capacity of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) power systems is increasing. As output power forecasting is required by electricity market participants and utility operators for the stable operation of power systems, several methods have been proposed using physical and statistical approaches for various time ranges. A short-term (30 min ahead) forecasting method had been proposed previously for multiple PV systems using motion estimation. This method forecasts the short time ahead PV power generation by estimating the motion between two geographical images of the distributed PV power systems. In this method, the parameter , which relates the smoothness of the resulting motion vector field and affects the accuracy of the forecasting, is important. This study focuses on the parameter and evaluates the effect of changing this parameter on forecasting accuracy. In the periods with drastic power output changes, the forecasting was conducted on 101 PV systems. The results indicate that the absolute mean error of the proposed method with the best parameter is 10.3%, whereas that of the persistence forecasting method is 23.7%. Therefore, the proposed method is effective in forecasting periods when PV output changes drastically within a short time interval.