Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan

Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan
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估计日本零下限的非线性新凯恩斯模型

DOI:
10.1111/jmcb.12908
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发表时间:
2022
期刊:
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
UEDA KOZO
UEDA KOZO
中科院分区:
--
文献类型:
--
作者:
IIBOSHI HIROKUNI;SHINTANI MOTOTSUGU;UEDA KOZO

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哪种货币政策规则能够最好地描述名义利率被限制在零下限(ZLB)时日本银行(BOJ)的政策?什么样的经济基本面可以解释日本的长期停滞?在分析中加入非线性有多重要?我们通过估计一个小规模非线性动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型来回答这些问题。我们发现:日本银行实施了基于阈值的前瞻性指导政策;需求的负面冲击解释了日本的经验;非线性模型在分析ZLB期间的日本经济时非常有用。
Which type of monetary policy rule best describes the policy conducted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) during the period when the nominal interest rate is constrained at the zero lower bound (ZLB)? What are the economic fundamentals that explain Japan's prolonged stagnation? How important is incorporating nonlinearities in the analysis? We answer these questions by estimating a small‐scale nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We find that: the BOJ conducted a threshold‐based forward guidance policy; adverse demand shocks explain Japan's experience; and nonlinear models are very useful in the analysis of the Japanese economy during the ZLB period.
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