Tobacco Price Increases and Population Interest in Smoking Cessation in Japan Between 2004 and 2016: A Google Trends Analysis
Tobacco Price Increases and Population Interest in Smoking Cessation in Japan Between 2004 and 2016: A Google Trends Analysis
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DOI：
10.1093/ntr/nty020
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发表时间：
2019-04-01
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Gallus, Silvano
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tabuchi, Takahiro;Fukui, Keisuke;Gallus, Silvano
简介 烟草价格上涨可以提高公众对戒烟的兴趣，但尚不清楚这种兴趣能持续多久。我们的目标是使用谷歌搜索数据评估日本卷烟价格上涨影响的持续时间。方法以相对搜索量（RSV）从0到100的范围收集2004年至2016年日本戒烟的月度或每日汇总谷歌搜索量。使用月度RSV数据，我们评估了RSV与日本烟草控制措施之间的可能关系。使用每日 RSV 数据，通过集群检测测试确定搜索量影响显着增加的时间段。实施卷烟涨价之前 RSV 的飙升揭示了预期效应。 结果 2004 年至 2016 年间，观察到的三个最高月度 RSV 峰值出现在 2006 年 7 月（RSV = 66），当时卷烟价格上涨了 11%，以及 9 月（RSV = 90）和 2010 年 10 月（RSV = 100），当时卷烟价格上涨了 37%。就每日 RSV 而言，2010 年价格上涨周围检测到的簇大小（52 天）比 2006 年（17 天）更长。 2010年，价格上涨前25天出现了一个聚集期，这表明存在预期效应。价格上涨开始后，检测到了27天的聚集性上涨。当2014年4月因消费税而导致卷烟价格上涨时，几乎没有观察到预期效应。结论可以使用Google趋势数据来评估烟草价格上涨对戒烟的人口影响。该集群表明，卷烟价格上涨对人口戒烟兴趣的影响更大、更持久，但这种影响可能会持续相对较短的时间。 意义 为了研究卷烟价格上涨对日本人口戒烟兴趣影响的持续时间，我们对谷歌戒烟搜索数据进行了分析。 2004 年至 2016 年间，每月 RSV 的三个最高峰值出现在 2010 年 10 月，当时卷烟价格上涨了 37%。分析每日 RSV 数据，检测到 2010 年价格上涨前后的聚类规模为 52 天，并且观察到价格上涨日期之前 25 天的聚类周期，表明存在预期效应。该集群表明，较高的卷烟价格上涨会产生更大、更持久的影响，但对人口的影响持续相对较短的时间。卷烟价格的进一步上涨是必要的。
Introduction Tobacco price increases can generate increased public interest in smoking cessation, but it is not clear how long this interest lasts. Our objective was to evaluate the duration of the impact of cigarette price increase in Japan using Google search data.Methods Monthly or daily aggregated Google search volume for smoking cessation in Japan from 2004 to 2016 was collected in terms of relative search volume (RSV) ranging from 0 to 100. Using monthly RSV data, we evaluated possible relationships between the RSVs and tobacco control measures in Japan. Time periods within which the impact of search volume significantly increased were identified by cluster detection test, using daily RSV data. A spike in RSV preceding the enforcement of a cigarette price increase revealed an anticipation effect.Results Between 2004 and 2016, the three highest monthly RSV spikes were observed in July 2006 (RSV = 66), when cigarette prices increased by 11%, and in September (RSV = 90) and October 2010 (RSV = 100), when cigarette prices increased by 37%. Regarding daily RSV, the detected cluster size around the price increase in 2010 (52 days) was longer than that in 2006 (17 days). In 2010, a cluster period of 25 days before the date of the price increase was observed, suggesting an anticipation effect. After the onset of the price increase, a cluster of 27 days was detected. When the cigarette price increased due to consumption tax in April 2014, almost no anticipation effect was observed.Conclusions The population impact of tobacco price increases on smoking cessation may be assessed using Google Trends data. The cluster indicates that a higher cigarette price increase had a higher and longer lasting effect on population interest in cessation, but the impact may continue for a relatively short time.Implications To examine the duration of the impact of cigarette price increases on population interest in smoking cessation in Japan, Google search data for smoking cessation were analyzed. Between 2004 and 2016, the three highest spikes of monthly RSV were observed in October 2010, when cigarette prices increased by 37%. Analyzing daily RSV data, the detected cluster size around the price increase in 2010 was 52 days, and a cluster period of 25 days before the date of the price increase was observed, suggesting an anticipation effect. The cluster indicates that a higher cigarette price increase had a higher and longer lasting effect, but the population impact continues for a relatively short time. Further increases in the price of cigarettes are necessary.