Sensitivity of Asian climate change to radiative forcing during the last millennium in a multi-model analysis
Sensitivity of Asian climate change to radiative forcing during the last millennium in a multi-model analysis
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多模型分析亚洲近千年气候变化对辐射强迫的敏感性
DOI：
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.02.007
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发表时间：
2016-04
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Wang Hongli
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shi Zhengguo;Xu Tingting;Wang Hongli
本文利用古气候模拟相互比较计划3的7个气候模式的近千年（公元850-1850年）试验结果，分析了亚洲地区的印度季风、东亚季风和西风急流的年代际至百年气候变化。在统计上，所有模式都模拟出了中世纪暖期（MWP，公元901-1200年）和小冰期（LIA，公元1551-1850年）之间的显著温度差异，在较冷的时期出现了较大的温度偏差。虽然存在差异，更强的印度和东亚夏季风环流，以及更强的亚洲西风急流在冬季，被发现在MWP相比，LIA，在大多数模式。这些变化主要源于两个时期不同的大气热力结构，这是对外部辐射强迫的响应。然而，与季风相关的降水是相当复杂的，有明显不同的模式模拟的模式。有相位差异的降水之间的几十年变化的模式，始终未能检测到在降水的辐射强迫的最小值减弱。只有有限的模式能够模拟印度和东亚地区降水变化的准百年太阳周期。因此，虽然气候系统肯定会受到外部辐射强迫的影响，我们的结果意味着，自然强迫可能不会对亚洲季风降水产生如此大的影响，或者模式可能低估了响应。
The outputs of last millennium (A.D. 850–1850) experiments from seven climate models of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project 3, have been used to analyze decadal to centennial climatic variations over Asia, including the Indian monsoon, the East Asian monsoon and the westerly jet. In particular, the differences between the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, A.D. 901–1200) and the Little Ice Age (LIA, A.D. 1551–1850) are focused on. Statistically, significant temperature contrasts between the MWP and LIA are simulated by all of the models, and larger temperature deviations occur during colder periods. Although discrepancies exist, stronger Indian and East Asian summer monsoon circulations, as well as a stronger Asian westerly jet stream in winter, are found during the MWP compared to the LIA, in most of the models. These changes primarily originate from different atmospheric thermal structures over the two periods, which occur in response to the external radiative forcings. However, the monsoon-associated precipitation is quite complicated, with distinctly different patterns simulated among the models. There are phase differences in the multi-decadal variability of precipitation among the models, which consistently fail to detect a weakening in the precipitation at the minima of the radiative forcings. Only limited models are able to simulate the quasi-100-year solar cycles in the changes of precipitation over India and East Asia. Thus, although the climate system is certainly affected by external radiative forcings, our results imply that the natural forcings may not exert such a substantial influence on the Asian monsoon rainfall, or the models may underestimate the response.
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